Research On Supply Chain Operation Management With The Overconfident Retailer

Most of the existing researches of channel are about decision and coordination optimization of rational participants.But participants of the supply chain are not rational because of the influence of market environment and their own subjective attitude.Irrational behavior will make the change of decision which often deviates from the optimal decision.This reduces the operational efficiency of the supply chain.Based on the behavior of overconfident retailer,this article studies the overconfidence influence on supply chain under different constructions.Based on the newsvendor model,this article studies the optimum order decision-making for single channel supply chain composed of a retailer and a manufacturer under the case of the mean of market demand increasing and variance reducing reasoning from retail's overconfidence.Then it makes comparison with order quantity of rational retailer and analyzes the sensitive degree of the deviation of the optimal order quantity to the actual mean and variance of demand.And it makes analysis of the impacts on the profits of the participants in the supply chain.Based on the supply chain with overconfident retailer,this article studies ordering decision problem of supply chain considering the supply chain disruption having affect on product market scale and the overconfidence behavior of price factor.Under the retailer's,overconfidence and order quantity deviating from the optimal order quantity of supply chain,buy-back contract is designed.To use this contract to make the deviation caused by overconfidence is well corrected.This article makes analysis of the influence of overconfidence based on the dual-channel construction.The retailer has the retail channel,the manufacturer has the network channel.Considering the influence of price on demand,competition price as well as the price originating from channel.It makes research of retailer who has the overconfidence behavior of underestimating price elasticity coefficient and study the influence on dual-channel supply chain.Then it studies the manufacturer and retailer about the change of decision about the channel price of product,and the relationship between centralized decision-making and decentralized decision-making of supply chain.According to above analysis,two sides revenue sharing contract is designed and validated.Under this contract,the dual-channel can achieve supply chain coordination and system can achieve the optimal state.Finally,this article makes discussions about the influence of retailer's overconfidence level on price,demand and profit of dual-channel participants.It makes comparison with the actual circumstance of the supply chain market and analyzes the reason of deviation.The research conclusion of this paper can provide theoretical basis for a single channel and dual-channel supply chain to the decisions of order and coordination in the existence of overconfident policymakers,which can improve the efficiency of the operation management of supply chain.