The Research On The Evolution Of Chinese Wheat Spatial Pattern And The Contribution Of Driving Factors

Wheat is one of the most important cereal grains in China,and its production and spatial pattern are directly related to national food security and social stability.In order to promote the steady development of wheat production,ensure the effective supply of wheat products and optimize the spatial pattern of wheat,this study is based on the analysis of variation characteristics,driving factors and their contribution shares,factor analysis of spatial pattern evolution,future trends of Spatial pattern evolution and optimizing strategy.The standard deviation ellipse model was used to summarize the general characteristics of Chinese wheat production and spatial pattern evolution from 1949.And the ETA square method was introduced to construct two full time model groups of the core provinces and one devided time model group of the whole country.Then driving factors of wheat production contribution was calculated and analyzed.Based on these above analysis,the driving factors of wheat production were adopted to analyze and explain the evolution of spatial pattern of wheat production in China.Furthermore,the effects of driving factors on the evolution of spatial pattern of wheat were summarized.Based on these work,according to the current reality of our country,the final dissertation makes a brief judgment and prediction of the future development of the spatial pattern of wheat in China,and puts forward some strategies and suggestions in order to make the driving factors work better.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The special pattern of wheat in China showed an evolution trend which is from centralization to decentralization,finally going back to centralization.During this process,Huanghuaihai region has always been the center.And the second stage of the terrain is the main distribution region.Since 2000,it is highly concentrated in the Huang Huai Hai region.Besides,the spring wheat presents the characteristics of moving to the west.(2)The independent contribution of climate factors has gradually reduced and took effects through the interaction with social and economic factors.Production and socioeconomic factors have always been the core factors which are affecting wheat production,in addition,these factors are more significant for Spring Wheat.The contribution shares of scientific and technological progress increased firstly and then decreased.Finally tends to be stable.(3)Production and socioeconomic factors have a deep influence on spatial pattern of wheat.The effects of climate and science and technology on the spatial pattern of wheat tended to decrease and stabilize.Although other factors such as system,policy,science and technology,natural disaster and wheat import and export are not included in these models,they still have important effect on wheat production and its spatial pattern.(4)The expectation of feature wheat spatial pattern: In the next period of time,the spatial pattern of wheat will be stable.Huanghuaihai is still the core region,and spring wheat will resume production in local cold area,which will be a small changing area.(5)When optimizing the spatial pattern of wheat in China,natural elements should always be insisted as the basis for the adjustment of spatial pattern.Then actively encouraging scientific and technological innovation and optimizing production inputs.Promoting institutional innovation and creating a favorable policy environment.Making full use of effect of each driving factors to optimize the spatial pattern of wheat and improve wheat supply efficiency.