The Impact Of Trade Policy Uncertainty On The Export Dynamics Of Enterprises

Trade Policy Uncertainty(TPU)is a change in the future of trade policy developed by a government which brings a range of economic risks,including corporate exports,personal consumption,investment premiums,and so on.In the international trade,the uncertainty of trade policy has a crucial influence on the export decision of the enterprise,and even the suspension of the export is also related to the increase of the uncertainty of the trade policy.In fact,the trade system around the world is affected by the uncertainty of trade policy(TPU).On January 1,2010,China-ASEAN Free Trade Area was formally established,which is the first free trade zone between China and other countries.The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area has the largest trade scale so far,what’s more,it touches significance in China’s free trade zone strategy.Therefore,taking the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area as the empirical test sample of this article to explore the impact of trade policy uncertainty on the export of enterprises,it is of great practical significance for China to meet the current trend of regional trade liberalization and accept the challenges of developed countries.There is a certain amount of literature in foreign countries to study the impact of uncertainty on international trade.However,the existing literature on empirical research mainly focuses on the policy uncertainty with general nature,ignoring the uncertainty of trade policy.The research on the policy uncertainty in the domestic academic circles is still at the initial stage,mostly devoted in the theoretical analysis of the article which few directly regard the trade policy uncertainty as a positive object to study its impact on the export dynamics.Based on the practical meaning and the theoretical gap,this paper will explore the enterprise’s export dynamics from the basic characteristics,the enterprise dynamics and the product dynamic,and use the exporters,the entrants,the exit,the entry survivors and the survivors to analyze with a total of 28 variables,while the TPU works as explanatory variables,geographical distance,common boundary,the WTO member countries as a control variable,thus establishing a dynamic heterogeneous enterprise model.The main empirical results show that:(1)The increase of the uncertainty of trade policy will lead to the increase of source country’s export exit,and the impact on source country’s exporters,entrants,entry survivors and survivors is not significant;(2)The increase of the uncertainty of trade policy will lead to a decline in the average exports of source country’s exporters,entrants,entry survivors and survivors,but the impact on the average exports of source country’s exporters is not significant;(3)The trade policy uncertainty is significantly positive for the exit rate of export enterprises,while it has a negative effect on the survival rate of entrants;(4)The trade policy uncertainty is positive for products’ exit rate of survivors;5)The increase of the trade policy uncertainty will diminish the positive effects of trade liberalization on corporate exports.The conclusions of this paper will help to deepen the understanding of the external growth mechanism and the external constraints of trade creation.It also provides a corresponding basis for thinking about how to deal with the complex and externally external trading environment to ensure the sustained and healthy development under foreign trade policy enlightenment.