The Analysis Of The Systemic Risk Spillover Effect Of Banks

In recent years,China's economy has entered a new normal state,the pace of economic development tends to slow down,"13th Five-Year Plan" period,the Government made a clear "three to a drop"(to production capacity,to inventory,to leverage,cost)Increased economic risk.With the development of financial globalization,the relationship between financial institutions and social and economic life is becoming more and more close,especially the banking industry.This has led to systemic financial risk in the banking sector that is easily spread to other financial sectors.Over the past few years,Chinese banking sector continued to rise in non-performing loans.Banking risk and financial risks are closely related,but also related to financial security and national security,which requires us to a scientific and rational attitude to face the banking risk.Which brings a topic,how to effectively measure and monitor the financial risks of the banking industry.On the basis of the relevant literatures at home and abroad,this paper puts forward the research topic of this paper,that is,the financial risk spillover effect of banking system based on Cova R model.In the research method,this paper adopts the method of empirical analysis,qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis to construct the quantile regression model,Co Va R model and dynamic Co Va R model,and analyzes the banking,insurance and securities industry from January 2 to20,2014 On January 6,the stock market performance of empirical analysis,this paper found that: when the banking crisis,usually through different channels lead to insurance and securities industry crisis.In general,the risk of banking spillover will have a stronger impact on the securities industry than in the insurance industry.From the whole economic cycle,the banking system of systemic risk Co Va R relative to the financial crisis,there is a certain degree of leadership.Through the analysis,this paper puts forward the following suggestions:(1)to establish a unified banking monitoring system to establish a comprehensive banking monitoring system,the commercial banking supervision as soon as possible into a unified banking regulatory system(2)to strengthen the bank's internal governance only in the effective External supervision and high-quality internal corporate governance under the dual role,in order to effectively reduce the banking system risk outbreak and the possibility of spillover.(3)to strengthen the importance of the system to monitor the importance of the bank.China should establish a list of system importance banks(five lines)as soon as possible and establish a prepared plan to deal with the outbreak of systematic and important banking financial risks and prevent the impact of financial risk spillovers from causing significant adverse effects.