Research On Generation Expansion Planning Under The Background Of Electricity Market Based On Evolutionary Game

New energy power generation develops rapidly in recent years because of the enhance of environmental awareness and other factors.But the cost of new power generation is still higher than the traditional power generation,its current development still can't be separated from the support of national or regional policy.All kinds of new energy power generation technology will participate in the market competition in the end in the future electricity market,so Scientific and reasonable allocation of their installed capacity can not only fully improve the generation company's comprehensive income in the market,but also play an integral role to promote the development of new energy technology.A reliable decision support system for sustainable generation expansion planning is conducive to increase the use of new energy power generation,improve the energy efficiency on both supply side and demand side and pursue better economic benefits under the guidance of appropriate government policies.The main work of this paper: The cost factors of various kinds of power generation technology are analyzed the main factors that affect their competitiveness are made clear,it shows that the limiting factors of the new energy competiveness are mainly the higher capacity cost and lower energy conversion rate,the cost and profit model of each power generation company is constructed subsequently;A game model is established in the hybrid power system,which has a variety of power generation technologies for each company,the multi-agent modeling method is used to establish the power market simulation framework according to the evolutionary game theory in order to introduce the effects of inter-temporal dynamics of market and demand side on generation expansion planning,which is conducive to perform the dynamic competitive environment and get more accurate results of generation expansion planning;The initial conditions of generation expansion planning including load conditions and policy conditions are classified and designed for simulation under the previous framework,the simulation results are analyzed and as follows:The Changes and characteristics of load will have a great impact on the expansion results along the planning horizon,it shows that the investment scale under the rigid demand is bigger than elastic demand,and the average electricity price along the planning horizon is also higher under the rigid demand;Wind power generation is less competitive than existing conventional technologies,and the market share is relatively lower than them without national or regional policy support;When the environmental costs and subsidy mechanism are introduced into thegeneration expansion planning,it can be showed from simulation results that: Only levying environmental costs on thermal power can improve the market competitiveness of wind power while inhibiting the growth rate of electricity demand,which is helpless for the long-term development of various kinds of power generation technology;To a certain extent,the wind power subsidies can not only improve the market competitiveness of itself,but also will reduce the electricity price and promote the steady growth of electricity demand,wind power generation will make a significant progress in the implementation of optimal subsidy in future.