The Analysis Of Industrial Economic Prosperity Index Of Guangxi

China is in the transition from planned economy to market economy since the 1990s.With the growth of vigorous market economy,the industrial enterprises are rapidly developing.After decades continually grows,which brought the question of industrial development to the fore.Though China’s industry is characterized by its big scale,it is not so strong.Industries running conditions continued to maintain an unchanged posture.The development condition of domestic and foreign economy is complicated at present.However,the Government’s objectives in addition to industrial upgrading,’maintaining speed up from "Made in China" to "Created in China".In particular,industries occupy a predominant position and appears to have been leading macro-economic market.Through the research of business analysis,it has the vital significance and important reference value for Macroeconomics.The major problems existed in two following aspects:the domestic studies mainly focused on the field of Macroeconomics on one hand,while research on the national level far more than studied on provincial-level on the other.Through reviewing the related literatures and abroad on industry index,and considering the actual condition of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,to collect and organize the related monthly industry index data.By using the method of time difference analysis in Econometrics,K-L information and peak comparative method to screening the leading indicators,coincidence indicators and lagging indicators of Guangxi industrial economy as well as such systems preliminarily established.These three indicators are synthesized by chief component analysis,and specific analytical method according to Guangxi industrial economic index.Finally,the VAR module and Granger causality test prove above research works of application effects.This study shows:(1)It has favorable effect through completing the leading indicators and coincidence indicators of industrial economy,which appears to have been the situation of sharp fluctuations.Three times completed cyclical fluctuation occurred from January 2006 to December 2015,Meanwhile,the leading indicators is five months ahead of the coincidence indicators.(2)Actual application show that the leading indicators and coincidence indicators are the reasons for each other,which indicates that the index completed in this thesis has a high application value in Granger.According to complete the leading indicators and coincidence indicators of Guangxi industrial economy,this thesis aims at establishment of prosperity indicators and preliminary exploration on such field.Hope this paper would have been references available for decision——makers,management,investor and consumers.