Research On Boom Index And Prediction Model Of Electronics Industry In Guangdong

Along with the Reforming and opening-up of China in 1978, the electronic industry in Guangdong is booming and has formed quite obvious characteristics in technological innovation, supporting industries and industry structure in the past 30 years, and established a complete industrial chain and high concentration. It has became an important global manufacturing base, and emerged a number of well-known enterprises such as Huawei, ZTE,Konka, SKYWORTH and TCL. At present, the electronics industry has become one of the most important pillar industry in Guangdong Province, occupies an important position in the manufacturing industry, the industry boom business fluctuations and even the whole country has played a decisive role in the impact on the whole province’s manufacturing industry. Therefore, Guangdong electronic industry operating status monitoring has the extremely important practical significance.Prosperity index analysis is an important method for understanding, monitoring changes of things economic cycle fluctuation, and forecasting the macroeconomic conditions, and has been widely applied to macroeconomic, financial securities, industrial, agricultural, market and enterprises and many other areas. The Scholars Scholars at home and abroad have made great progress in theory and practice aspects. However, although the related research literature prosperity index analysis is very rich, but in the electronics industry boom index aspect, the literature is not only less, but also Incomplete. Because these research always do from a macro perspective, but lack of industry, enterprise micro perspective; and often use macroeconomic data analysis, but less enterprise financial management data. Therefore, preparation of the index are often not comprehensive enough. Compared with the existing research, Using the people’s Bank of 5000 households survey data of industrial enterprises to construct electronic industry boom index and depict the industry development, is a new attempt to from the microscopic point of view, and has good theoretical and practical significance in better judging the electronics industry cyclical trends, and providing the reference for the implementation of macroeconomic regulation and control.This paper attempts to Guangdong 5000 business survey of industrial enterprises in 1998- 2014 quarter data as the foundation to carry on the system analysis to the Guangdong electronic industry boom. First of all, This paper generalize the domestic and foreign research in prosperity index compilation and business investigation, then screening out the index of 6 leading indicators, 4 synchronous indicators and 6 lagging indicators from the qualitative indexes, quantitative indexes and derivative indexes, and then calculate the synthetic index using international NBER method. Secondly, considering the boom index can only be used only for judging the trend of synthesis, but unable to make quantitative prediction, this paper built a prediction model on the leading indicators of cointegration regression, not only make full use of the leading indicator information, and effectively avoid the multivariate regression multicollinearity and have multiple effects in the model. Finally, combining with the index and the prediction model, analysized Guangdong electronic industry cycle fluctuation and forecast for 2015.This study shows that:(1) the model: electronic industry boom index runs well, and the synchronization index and index fluctuation, lagging index fluctuations showed good coupling; the index of two principal components extraction ideal effect, the trend chart of comprehensive index of synthetic and benchmark chart has a good synchronization; the average relative error of cointegration regression model is 5.1%, the relative error of more than 70% of the value in the 0%-6.5% range fluctuations, shows that the cointegration regression model can predict well;(2) empirical results: since 1998, the Guangdong electronics industry boom index has 4 cycles, the first index of leading in the 5 quarter of the synchronization index; although along with fluctuations, the electronic industry still in the normal development and will take on small fluctuations in 2015.