Research On The Impact Of International Capital Flows On China’s Monetary Policy

In recent years,with the accelerated process of RMB internationalization,China’s RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform,in the aspects of capital account liberalization has made great progress,but at the same time to China’s financial capital,factor pricing,system stability and internal and external risk prevention has also brought new challenges,especially in the international capital flow under the impact of monetary policy the system of our country will face greater pressure,the implementation of autonomy is also affected.In this paper,the basic theory of international capital flows and monetary policy based on the study of our country’s international capital flow measurement method,the main structure and the influence factors and the future trend of development,expounds the mechanism and approach the influence of international capital flows on China’s monetary policy.Then the target loss function of macroeconomic quantitative target is introduced into the central bank,established the sterilization model of international capital flow to reflect the influence of international capital flow on the effect of monetary policy and monetary policy tool offset coefficient model.The relevant data in China’s first quarter of 2003 to the fourth quarter of 2016 were quantified,and conducted an empirical study using the method of simultaneous equations,the offset coefficient and offset coefficient,and using the method of recursive coefficient dynamic change process of offset coefficient and sterilization coefficient were estimated.The results show that the offset coefficient of international capital flows on monetary policy is 0.3533-0.3608,which shows that the effect of monetary policy in China is about 35.33%-36.08% of international capital flow offset,monetary policy effect is not very obvious;monetary policy reversal of international capital flow number 0.7740-0.8543,illustrate the sterilization efficiency of monetary policies in China is about 77.40%-85.43%.In view of the qualitative and quantitative analysis,in the last part of the paper put forward to improve the reference effect of China’s monetary policy under international capital flow: strengthen and improve the supervision and management of cross-border capital flows,improve risk prevention;monetary policy tools sterilization efficiency;deepen the financial market reform,improve the ability to resist risks.