| 2016 is China's "13th Five-Year Plan," the first year of China's export-oriented economy from domestic to consumption-based economic development has entered the deep water area,the next five years(2016-2020)will be the transformation of economic development Key five years.At the end of June 2016,China's foreign exchange reserves amounted to 3205.2 billion US dollars,from June 2014 to this,which lasted 24 months a total of 788.1 billion US dollars down.The future,foreign exchange reserves decline will become the new normal state of our economy.On the other hand,liquidity support was provided by MLF,SLO and other newly created re-lending methods.In the meantime,China's domestic credit growth has been on the rise in the context of a decrease in foreign exchange reserves.The central bank has expanded the scale of new loans through loose monetary policy.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the influence and role of foreign exchange reserves and domestic credit on money supply,and to explain the autonomy of monetary policy and the initiative of money supply.This paper first reviews the research literature on foreign exchange,domestic credit and money supply.In the process of comparing domestic and foreign literatures,we find that the research is inadequate.According to the research method of problem-analysis-problem-solving,Content and logical framework.According to the above-mentioned research methods,the second chapter through the analysis of domestic credit,foreign exchange on the role of money supply mechanism,derived foreign exchange and domestic credit to the money supply has expanded role.Based on the above-mentioned mechanism of action,the third chapter takes the present situation of foreign exchange,domestic credit and money supply as the starting point,describes the characteristics of foreign exchange,domestic credit and money supply,and analyzes our country's foreign exchange Since June 2014,a substantial decline in foreign exchange,to make China's monetary policy autonomy.In the fourth chapter,we use the VEC model to estimate the fluctuation of foreign exchange fluctuation before and after January 2008 to June 2016 through the econometric method.Finally,based on the above analysis,Money supply,the paper puts forward the research conclusion and some suggestions to strengthen the independence of monetary policy and the initiative of money supply in our country.This paper analyzes the impact of the change of foreign exchange and domestic credit on money supply in the new period of the transition of economic development mode and the reduction of foreign exchange in the two aspects of theory and practice.It has broken through the previous research only to examine the effect of foreign exchange on the money supply or that of domestic credit on the money supplyseparately.VEC model is established by measuring the effect of foreign exchange and domestic credit on the money supply,and by adding the corresponding model to the supply of money Impulse Response Function and Granger Causality Analysis.In the empirical part of the VEC model,three time-series models are divided into three empirical models,from January 2008 to June 2016,January 2008 to June 2014 and July to June 2016,The influence of foreign exchange and domestic credit on the money supply in different time segments,and the contribution of foreign exchange contraction and domestic credit expansion in explaining the money supply in the long run,The conclusion and the countermeasure suggestion.We can see from the empirical evidence that foreign exchange reserve is the main driving force of money supply before the first half of 2014,and the contribution of domestic credit to money supply will gradually increase after the second half of2014.Comprehensive empirical analysis and descriptive analysis show that the decrease of foreign exchange reserves enhances the autonomy of monetary policy,and the relative controllable domestic credit enhances the initiative of money supply. |
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