Research On Financial Risk Early Warning Of PH Real Estate Company

With the development of our national economy and the improvement of the average consumption level of residents,the demand of commodity house is growing and this phenomenon directly promote the real estate industry to become one of the pillar industries of our national economy.With factors of large driving force coefficient,own strong correlation,the real estate industry constantly affects the development of social and economic activities.Real estate is a typical capital intensive industry,with large investment,high risk,strong regional characteristics and long cycle.These characteristics determine it will face a certain degree of financial risk.The financial risk of real estate enterprises will increase with the increase of uncertainties in the market,such as the risk of capital strand breaks,inflation risk,interest rate changes,the high asset liability ratio and other risks.Generally,financial risks can be tracked by financial indicators,but only with these quantitative financial indicators can not do a comprehensive forecast of financial risk of real estate business.It is easy to overlook the significant impact of non-financial factors on the financial situation of the enterprise.Sometimes it is more comprehensive and more effective to use some non-financial indicators to forecast the financial risk.For example,it is more reliable and accurate to evaluate the financial risk of the enterprise in the light of the domestic and international economic situation,financial policy and policy regulation.Therefore,in addition to utilizing financial indicators quantitative analysis,how to introduce non-financial indicators in order to establish precisely dynamic comprehensive financial early warning system is this paper's core content.This thesis takes PH Real Estate Company as an example.At first,on the basis of the theory of financial risk early warning,the paper identifies the significant financial risk through the analysis of the current situation and the internal and external environment of the PH Real Estate Company.Then,the PH Real Estate Company's financial indicators and non-financial indicators were selected to constitute the PH Real Estate Company's financial indicators early warning system and the warning system use AHP to weight the index.Finally,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to construct the financial risk early warning model of PH Real Estate Company,and the model is tested.The result is in line with the PH Real Estate Company's actual situation.By using the model to predict the financial situation of PH Company in 2016,it is concluded that the company's financial risk has been in a state of alarm.Then combined with the actual situation of PH Real Estate Company,the corresponding financial risk control measures are put forward.It is hoped that this study can provide some references about the financial risk early warning for Chinese real estate companies which are in the growing stage.