Actuarial Research On The Balance Of Pension Insurance System Under The Twochild Policy

Over the past 30 years,the newborn population has declined quickly under the strict policy of one child,while the average life expectancy extending makes the old dependency ratio increased from 9.5 in 1996 to 14.3 in 2015.And our country's basic pension insurance system will be up agnist enormous pressure as result of the accelerated deterioration of the population structure.In order to alleviate the pressure,our country's family planning policy has changed.Meanwhile,pension insurance system covering urban and rural residents which makes of the new rural endowment insurance and urban residents' pension insurance becomes the important part of pension insurance systems.Then whether the tremendous expending pressure will be ameliorated successfully or not under the two-child policy and pension insurance's reforming would be a new research topic.This paper aims to provide data reference to improve the system of insurance according to calculating the income and expenditure of China's endowment insurance(including urban employees' endowment insurance and urban-rural residents' pension insurance),establishing the population forecasting model and the actuarial model on the basis of the multidisciplinary knowledge of demography,statistics,insurance actuarial science.Finally,a quantitative result of maturing the systems is givend by simulating the effect of certain policy.As a consequence,the results show as follows: firstly,in 2029 the total population of our country will reach the peak of 14.44 billion.Secondly,an obvious limitation of "time lag" is used to ameliorate the income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance with the two-child policy.And the current enforcement is still not enough to alleviate the pressure effectively in the future.Thirdly,the pressure can be improved effectually under the policy of two-child combined with retirement.Fourth,lifting individual account pension divisor coefficient and payment rate,raising fund yield reasonably would benefit to recover financial balance,too.Fifth,the development of economic health is vital important to the sustainable development of pension insurance.Therefore,establishing a mature pension insurance system,encouraging people to have two offspring,and combination of multiple policies will guarantee the sustainable development of the basic pension insurance syetem for a long term.