Study On Grain Consumption And The Income Elasticity Of Nutrition For Residents In Hubei Province

China is facing the challenge of food security with both quantity and quality problems at the present stage.A growing number of people realize that nutrition intakes are the essential part of food security.Thus,food security develops into a broader concept with nutrition goals.More people pay attention to the nutrition issue like malnutrition because of the improper diet structure.Therefore,there are increasing academic debates about the relationship between income growth and impacts on residents' nutritional intake situation.This work will try to build the relationship among income,grain consumption,and nutrition demand and then forecast the future nutrition demand and grain demand.Firstly,we collect regression equation to analyze the data of income,grain consumption and nutrients intake for rural and urban residents in Hubei province from 1985 to 2014.Secondly,we convert food into nutrition in order to analyze the effect of income changes on the residents' nutrition.At last we calculate the income elasticity of nutrition,which helps us to estimate residents' nutritional requirement and grain consumption in the future.These work help us to understand the change of residents' living standards in the new period,and provide new proposals for residents' nutrition and health issue.On the other hand,we can understand the trend of grain demand's change,and take reasonable steps to achieve the balance between grain production and demand in Hubei province under nutritional goals.Results show that the consumption of food grain is declining while the consumption of feed grain is rising.At present,both rural and urban residents have not reach the standard level of dietary nutrition,although urban residents' nutrition level is higher than rural residents'.The fundamental reason lies in the unreasonable dietary structure,and mainly resulting from the insufficient of dairy intake.The income elasticity of grain nutrients differentiated between rural and urban residents at different income levels.The income elasticity of food grain nutrients for rural residents is-0.276,and income increase will remain big impact on food grain nutrients.Urban residents' income is divided into two stages,0-10500 and 10500-25000,and in these two states,the elasticity are-0.172 and-0.509.Food grain nutrients may already reach the maximum level.When we analyze the income elasticity of animal-based nutrients,we divide rural residents' income into three stages,0-6800,6800-7500 and 7500-11000.In these states,income elasticity of animal-based calorie is 0.190,-0.063,and 0.385.The income elasticity of animal protein is 0.307,-0.042,and 0.343.The income elasticity of animal-based fatty is 0.156,-0.079,and 0.392.Farther income raise will continue making a strong effect on animal-based nutrients.We divide urban residents' income into two stages,0-19800 and 19800-25000.In this states,the income elasticity of animal-based calorie are 0.232,-0.113.The income elasticity of animal protein are 0.232,-0.144.The income elasticity of animal-based fatty are 0.219,-0.102.Farther income raise have no positive impact on animal-based nutrients intake.The forecast of residents' nutrition shows that the intake of food grain calorie of rural residents will reach the nutrition standards while the one of urban residents will adhere to the minimum nutrition standard.However the intake of animal-based nutrients of both rural and urban residents will still be inferior to minimum nutrition standard.The condition of grain consumption in 2025 will be better than it in 2014.In the future,grain consumption for rural residents in Hubei province will continue to decrease,but the grain consumption for urban residents will tend to stabilize.Meanwhile the consumption of feed grain for animal-based food will increase,and the growth of feed grain demand will be greater than the decrease of the food grain demand.With the development of economy and the increase of income,rural residents' income exerts weaker influence on nutrient while urban residents' income will have no effect on their nutrient.Thus,the impact of residents' income on nutrition will be marginal.If we want to continue to improve residents' nutrition states,the government and organizations should not only focus on residents' income,but also guide residents to strengthen the awareness of nutrition.Food security strategy should combine food demand with nutrition,and then it forms nutrition sensitive agricultural development pattern to solve the contradictions between production and demand,which means nutrition leads grain consumption and consumption leads grain production.Feed grain demand is rising,in which case we should adjust and optimize grain plantation structure to match food demand for rural and urban residents in Hubei province.