Determinants And Impacts Of Covid-19 Pandemic On Food Security In Pakistan:the Nexus Of Food Accessibility,Affordability,and Food Consumption Pattern

COVID-19 pandemic affected the world’s economy by restricting people’s domestic and international movement.Besides the health impacts,the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic dramatically affected the well-being of families and communities.Vulnerable families lost incomes,increased poverty,and created a food shortage due to the COVID-19 pandemic.The population facing food insecurity has been significantly affected by the extensive impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.The COVID-19 pandemic is causing a massive impact on the nutrition status of the poorest and most vulnerable population members.Food insecurity and malnutrition are major health problems and concerns for policy makers across the globe.It remained stubbornly high in 2020 and beyond due to the COVID-19 pandemic.Interruptions in the food systems lead to price increases combined with income loss,which exaggerate food and nutrition insecurity.It exposed multiple fragilities and vulnerabilities in the contemporary food system,particularly in developing countries especially Pakistan.The economic turmoil and increasing poverty of huge magnitude during the disease period likely drive many people to short-term food insecurity and poor food consumption.In addition,on the one hand,the lockdowns induced disruption in the accessibility of food services;on the other hand,COVID-19 triggered online shopping platforms to develop and flourish.Therefore,this demands for a more sustainable food system which has relevance in the coming years.Keeping in view these issues,the present research was designed to investigate COVID-19 impacts on the food insecurity,food buying behavior,food affordability and food consumption pattern in Pakistan,and focuses on the objectives;(1)to explore the food insecurity;(2)to study the role of online food buying behavior in food accessibility especially peoples’ perception towards it during COVID-19 pandemic;(3)to examine the food affordability impacts to the residents in Pakistan;and(4)investigate food consumption pattern of infected and non-infected peoples with COVID-19.The data was collected from two survey rounds.In the first survey round(from MaySeptember 2020),the responses from Punjab province were recorded from 370 respondents to measure the immediate impacts of COVID-19 policies on population food security and their mitigation measures in the 1st wave of the pandemic.In the 2nd round of the survey(from July-October 2021),almost 1067 respondents from Punjab and Sindh provinces in Pakistan during COVID-19 by an online survey in the 4th wave during delta variant spread,a total 1437 people’s response was recorded for the data of this research.The food insecurity was analyzed using the household food insecurity access scale(HFIAS)model,and coping strategies were analyzed using the coping strategies index.Moreover,the structural equation model was used to analyze the components of food consumption,affordability,and health impacts on peoples.Propensity score matching was used to analyze the food consumption among infected and non-infected respondents Lastly,a logit regression model used to understand the determinants of the online food buying behavior during COVID-19 among peoples.The analysis’ s findings showed that the pandemic’s effects are primarily due to the lockdown and mobility limitations put in place by governments,as well as the effects that subsequent income loss and decreased purchasing power have on food security.The COVID-19 epidemic has caused a 44.2% increase in severe food insecurity among households.More food insecurity was experienced by the households with a larger family size,those that remained in quarantine,and low-income people.Households implemented a variety of coping mechanisms in reaction to the income shocks,including rationing,dietary changes,reduced eating,and increased access to short-term food supplies.There was less food insecurity among households who received financial support or assistance from the government and charitable organizations than among their counterparts who didn’t receive.During the COVID-19 epidemic,the financial assistance and support helped vulnerable groups increase their food security.We also find that the pandemic has changed peoples’ shopping behaviours as part of maintaining their food availability during the pandemic.The results show that people faced higher level of difficulties in food accessibility in COVID-19 pandemic.Moreover,peoples behaviour for online buying channels is rapidly changing.And both the monthly income and food accessibility found positive association with buying behaviour.A gender friendly policy needs to be framed along with financial incentives and facilitation to reap maximum benefits from the potential of vastly emerging businesses of trade and commerce both at national and international levels.Online buying channels are viable and useful resource and needs to be considered for future food chains,not only in developed countries(such as China)but also for the low-income countries such as India,Pakistan,Sri Lanka etc to ensure the food accessibility and for reducing the food insecurity.The analysis related to the food affordability explored that people faced significant impacts on the loss of income source,working hours,debt increase,and food inflation which adversely affected the food intake and decreased the food consumption,that indicating a positive relationship between food intake and poverty.Besides the direct income impacts,COVID-19 increased incident of poverty up to 41% and almost 23%people are unable to afford minimum cost of healthy food.Moreover,extent of poverty and affordability of healthy diets varies across peoples’ different socioeconomic conditions.The significant relationship exists between the food affordability and health outcomes.The structural equation model results revealed the positive and significant association between the COVID-19 pandemic and income effects and health impacts while negative and significant association exists between the food consumption and adverse income effects.In addition,peoples adopted mitigation measure through increased demand for the food assistance to offset the negative income shocks and to attain better ability to access food during the COVID-19.The findings related to food consumption pattern during the COVID-19 pandemic showed that the people infected with COVID-19 disease found to have had the more dietary diversity(DDS)score and food consumption than their counterparts.The plant-based vitamin A sources are more frequently used than iron-based products.Moreover,the analysis of determinants showed that people with better affordability and income prosperity have more dietary diversity than poor counterparts.Furthermore,nutritional knowledge positively impacts the dietary diversity score,which implies that more awareness about positive usage of diets against diseases,and better knowledge about dietary habits increases the food intake,and social and electronic media are the most common source of nutritional knowledge.The socioeconomic factors also found to be the positively affecting the food intake during the disaster period.This research recommends to increase food assistance programs and provide resources to eliminate food access barriers now and likely in the future in the course of public health disasters and people’s income-raising activities should be protected by safeguarding smooth economic flow by imposing smart lockdown.The government in the short run should provide some targeted interferences such as cash transfer or subsidies are accommodating,and meal services on mobile vehicles or delivery channels should be established to deliver food for those who are unable to afford the minimum cost of food.Nonetheless in the long run,a better solution which guarantees not only an increase in income but also support in making it possible to provide ample opportunities to the poor people to attain access to food,health,and jobs.Moreover,government need to help online marketers and retailers develop their websites and improve their selling endeavors and intermediary food purchase methods such as group purchasing,and community purchases should be practiced for better availability and logistic cost reduction.Furthermore,government should provide targeted interventions through ensuring the availability and access of food for non-infected peoples so that a better immunity against disease can be created and to devise a grassroot level response on social and electronic media advocating resilience of the food system,healthy diets,to prevent shortages of food along with prevention of spread of COVID-19.The United Nations organization(UNO)should ensure sustainable and nutritious food on this planet by implementing the SDGs by 2050.