Research On The Detection And Measurement Of Systemic Financial Risk In China

At present,China is in the new economic normal state.With the deepening of the structural reform of the supply side,the real economy is facing severe test and penetrating into the financial system.The systematic financial risk will have more significant influence on the stability to the whole financial system and the development of the whole entity economy.Therefore,the accurate measure of systemic financial risk is conducive to us to understand the overall financial situation,preventing China's systemic financial risks and even on the supply side of China's structural reform and smooth across the middle income trap have theoretical and practical significance.At first,This paper analysis the relevant data from 2007 to 2016 by using the comprehensive index method,based on the seven dimensions of financial institution risk,stock,bond,money market risk,foreign exchange market risk,real estate market risk and macroeconomic risk to get the result of financial risk index.The main methods include the use of principal component analysis and significance test to filter a number of basic indicators,using the mean square method to calculate the weight vector of each dimension,and synthesize the systematic financial risk composite index CIFSR,followed by the threshold method of systemic financial risk Identify and applying the ARIMA model to predict systemic financial risk in 2017.Finally,this paper provides some suggestions in the future on the prevention of systemic financial risk in China by drawing lessons from relevant international experience.This paper takes the comprehensive index method as the basic method and the financial system as the research object,and established the systematic financial risk index.The research shows that China's systemic financial risk is basically in the low risk state from 2007 to 2016.Only China's systemic financial risk is in a high-risk state from April to October in 2015,and the predict of the ARIMA model is that China's systemic financial risk is in a moderate risk state in 2017.This paper studies the research method of systematic financial risk detection in China,which has certain theoretical and practical value.