Research On Evaluation Monitoring Of Systematic Financial Risk

Based on the evaluation of systemic financial risk monitoring in our country asthe research object, based on the operation status quo of financial market in China,the monitoring of systemic financial risk assessment both at home and abroadresearch, on the basis of summary, from the domestic and foreign research onstarting from the definition of systemic financial risk, combined with related theory,defining the connotation of systemic financial risk; Then, analyze the systemicfinancial risk assessment theory, the defined evaluation criteria; Starting from thefactors of affecting systemic financial risk, the selection effect index variables ofsystemic financial risk in our country, constructing index system, USES the KLRsignal analysis method of model building, monitoring of systemic financial risk inour country. Paper main research content includes the following three aspects:First，focus on theoretical index selection, study abroad is more of a monitoringmodel to set up and improve. In the selection of indexes can be summarized as fivecategories of indicators: overall run macroeconomic indicators, such as the GDPgrowth rate, inflation rate, etc.; Banks bad debts accumulated risk indicators, such asnon-performing loan ratio, etc. Bubble economy risk indicators, such as the marketaverage p/e ratio, etc.; Debt risk index, such as short-term foreign debt/total external;External shock risk indicators, such as interest rate movements in exchange rates.Second, systemic financial risk in China. At home and abroad for the study ofsystemic financial risk is not very mature, its definition, there is no uniformdefinition. This paper argues that systemic financial risk refers to a single eventtransmission between the parts through the system lead to the entire financial systemcrash or the possibility of a loss of function. Here, the financial system can beunderstood as a national-level macro financial risks and can also be specific refers toa particular region or area.Finally, the selection of indicators and KLR signal analysis. This article selectsthe GDP growth rate, the deflator inflation, fixed assets investment/GDP at homeand abroad, new loans/GDP, the real interest rate deviation, real interest rates to rise,loan interest rates/deposit rates, non-performing loans/full loan, current accountbalance/balance of short-term foreign debt/GDP, foreign debt, balance of externaldebt/GDP, short-term foreign debt balance12indicators variables in foreign exchange reserves, the model shows that the joint running systemic financial riskindex system, monitoring of systemic financial risk early warning is of high value.