| Hebei province is a big province of grain production,but due to the large population,food consumption is faster than the speed of grain production.By 2016,ten even increased food production has been realized.Per capita occupancy of grain is 463.21 kg.People's life has stepped into a well-off level.Agricultural modernization level has reached a higher level.Agricultural mechanization level is achieved by 92.7%.But due to the effect of urbanization,industrialization and so on,the province's land area is reducing year by year.The area of cultivated land per capital has only 1.33 mu,and differs with the national average of 0.67 mu.Population and food,and land are contradictory problem widespread attention.In addition,the agricultural resource over exploitation,fertilizers,agricultural overuse and abuse of feed additives such as extensive agricultural development way cause a drop in the quality of cultivated land.Those will affect the grain production capacity,contradiction between people and land will become increasingly prominent.Therefore,Analysis and research in Hebei province grain production potential and land population carrying capacity is of important theoretical and realistic significance for the government to make relevant policy,solve a series of problems,such as contradiction between human and land.In the study of this article,the following work is mainly to do:(1)The existing conditions of grain production in Hebei Province(including natural conditions,agricultural modernization production conditions),total grain output,planting area,cultivated land area are analyzed in detail.And several stages of food production in the future and the planting area is forecasted by using the gray Markov prediction model.(2)According to the actual situation,Hebei province land productive potential is estimate by productivity attenuation method.First,the use of solar total radiation is related formula photosynthetic productive potential;Second,the light warm production potential is estimated by temperature correction function determined by the frost-free period for reduction of photosynthetic production potential;Third,climate productive potential is estimated by using the relationship between the precipitation and evaporation of moisture and effective coefficient of light warm production potential for correction.Fourth,the land productive potential is estimate based on a slope will be weighted average of the soil is divided into different types of soil correction coefficient to calculate the correction on climate productive potential.(3)Through the analysis of social and economic factors affecting grain production potential,index system has been applied,using the composite entropy method and the grey correlation analysis on the social economy in Hebei province empirical analysis,the factors which influence social validity coefficients are obtained.Social production potential is estimate based on the modification of land productive potential.That is the reality of grain production potential.(4)The current situation of population size and sex ratio,rate of urbanization in Hebei province are analyzed in detail,and on this basis,using the gray Markov prediction model to forecast the future population size.According to the above analysis,land population carrying capacity and man-grain relationship status in Hebei province are estimated by using the model of population carrying capacity and population bearing ratio and the potential maximum population bearing capacity is obtained.(5)On the analysis of the potential of grain production in Hebei province and land population carrying capacity,countermeasures and suggestions a series of problems about the future food production and population and so on in our province are put forward.This paper is analyzed by using the gray Markov forecast model,entropy weight method and grey correlation analysis of composite model,the population carrying capacity model and the combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. |
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