Study On The Pooling Fund Medium-term Risk Of Employees' Basic Medical Insurance In Shaanxi Province

Based on the background of the development and operation of the employees' basic medical insurance fund in Shaanxi Province,this thesis has summarized the factors which affect the income and expenditure of the employees' medical insurance fund.Then,on the basis of current situation data of the pooling fund operation from 2009 to 2015,this thesis has established the revenue and expenditure model of pooling fund,in which the parameters are predicted by using SPSS 19.0,and the balance of income and expenditure of the polling fund in 2020.On the focus of the balance of the polling fund that will be estimated from 2016 to 2020,combined with current situation of the income and expenditure of the polling fund from 2009 to 2015,this thesis get the conclusion that the pooling fund will soon face the offset risk of income and expenditure under the triple pressure from the slowdown in economic growth,increasing degree of aging,and continuous growth in medical costs.The main risks are the followings:the current balance of the polling fund is insufficient while the cumulative surplus is too high,the fud is faced with both the risk that current payment is insufficient and the pressure to preserve and increase value;the growth rate of the pooling fund is significantly lower than the growth rate of expenditure,it will face the risk of non-payment in the future;the problem of proportional structure is unreasonable between polling fund and individual account.As for these questions above,this thesis finally proposes that,from the aspect of income of the fund,to deeply dig and expand the insured scope,broaden the financing channels,try to establish the provincial adjustment gold,etc,;from the aspect of the expenditure of the pooling fund,to complete the classification treatment and first visit system in basic level,carry out the payment model of mixed medical insurance,strengthen supervision and prevent over-medical situation,etc,;from the aspect of fund management,to establish the scientific budget management system.