Analysis Of The Linkage Effect Of Yunnan Nonferrous Metal Industry

Economic development is not directly affected by an industry because of the input-output correlations,but firstly acting on some correlative indurstries.The non-ferrous metals are rich in Yunnan Province.As a result,it is of great practical significance to accurately predict economic development and then provide the basis for policy recommendations and realize the stability and healthy development of Yunnan economy to analyze the correlation degree between Yunnan nonferrous metal industry and other indurstries on the basis of the input-out analysis method,to study the the static and dynamic linkage effects of Yunnan nonferrous metal industry to other industries.On the basis of the input-output relationship of each department in Yunnan Province,through calculating and analyzing the entire direct and complete consumption rates,direct and complete distribution(or assignment,depending on what you mean here)rates of 43 departments from 2002 to 2012,this study infers that there are 23 departments in total which are related forward and backward to the nonferrous metals industry in the entire economic system in Yunnan.To further analyze the current status of nonferrous metals industry,a 3-stage DEA analysis is applied to the production efficiency of it in 31 provinces over the whole country.Then taking the nonferrous metals industry in Yunnan as the main body,26 departments are introduced to calculate the CEG models,therefore the static connected effect of the whole economic department after some certain impact can be handled.After that,the DSGE model of 26 departments are introduced to analyze the dynamic connected effects of one unit of impact on 26 departments during the coming 60 periods.It can properly simulate the connected effects among other related departments when the nonferrous metals industry is affected by outside impact in reality.The policy recommendations obtained in this paper are as follows: Firstly,when the price of non-ferrous metals industry decreases by more than 40%,it is necessary to take the large degree of correlation with the nonferrous metals indurstry into account,like electric,machinery,heat production and supply.When the non-ferrous metal product price rises,most of the downstream production costs will be some improvement.These departments should be encouraged to take active measures to reduce costs.In addition,with the the interests transferring from enterprises,residents to government,considerations should be taken to correspond them.Secondly,when the policy on the non-ferrous metal industry have a positive impact,the pushing effects and pulling effects of electric,machinery,heat production and supply and general equipment,the substituting of some indurstries should be considered.