Research On The Risk Spillover Effect Of The Shadow Business Of Commercial Banks In China

The GDP growth rate of China has been declining since 2008,then our commercial banks have become increasingly difficult to carry out traditional business,so they began to develop the shadow business to meet their high profit growth requirements.In the process of development of the shadow business exposed many problems,the shadow business has the risk and a spillover effect,they not only will make the risk spread to other financial institutions,but also will spread to the entire financial market,breaking the financial market's instability.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the bank shadow business which lacks of regulation and its risk spillover effect.Commercial banks development shadow business is a double-edged sword for China's economy,it can bring the performance requirements to the banks,providing capital expenditures and increasing liquidity in the money market for the development of China's economy.At the same time,the large-scale shadow business will bring risks to the commercial banks themselves,but also undermine the stability of the financial market and then bring risks to China's economy.Therefore,the appropriate size of the shadow business has become the main target of risk control.On the basis of defining the concept of “Bank Shadow”,this paper analyzes the causes of the shadow business and its problems in China.Then based on the macro and micro perspective,we analyze the transmission path of the bank shadow's risk spillover effect in theoretically,and use the CoVaR method to calculate the systematic risk contribution of banks,proving that the shadow business and systemic risk is a "U" type relationship.Then,we give the corresponding policy recommendations.At present,the academic circles of our country mostly focus on their own risks and supervision measures,and they pay little attention to the risk spillover effect of banks' shadow business.so the research of this paper is limited by the availability of data and information,and can not be comprehensive and detailed,there are evenmany deficiencies.However,the study on the risk spillover effect of the shadow business has a certain reference value to commercial banks to control their own risks and the government regulation of the shadow business scale,control the stability of the financial market.