Research On The New Drug's R&D Evaluation Based On The Scenario Analysis

Pharmaceutical industry has been one of the significantly developing industries in the 13 th Five-year plan.The research of IND(the acronym of Investigational New Drug)is the motive power of the pharmaceutical industry,and the conversion of the investigative result depends on the reliable measurement and evaluation of the future profit.Thus,the evaluation of the IND research becomes important part to the development of pharmaceutical industry,the value of it also becomes the important field which the whole industry concentrates on.What this thesis studies are the specific methods of the valuation of IND research.Assets evaluation mainly include the traditional way of market method and income method and cost method.Every traditional method of asset appraisal has its specific feature,but all of them have the limitation when evaluate the particular asset of IND research.For example,according to the Cost Method,the investigative result of research and development cost has weak symmetry which causes real value of evaluative result absolutely differential;what's more,because of the lack of comparative cases according to Market Method,this method is short of the bases concerning comparative cases;as for Income Method,the profit of value of IND research has uncertainty by this way.In a word,all the reasons make the traditional methods inappropriate to the valuation of IND research.In this paper,based on the analysis of the essence of the scenario analysis method,emphatically probes into the concrete application of decision tree method.We construct the calculation model of the method,and the parameter selection made specific instructions.It include discount rate,success rate,free cash flow and the division of stage time to calculate these parameters.It tries to illustrate the specific application of this method by combining theory and practice with practical cases.The result of this thesis is that the Scenario Analysis is appropriate to the valuation of IND research,but the shortage of this method is that the parameter estimation has subjectivity to certain extent.The limitation exists in the situation that the prior costs need to evaluate the practical ones.These issues are the contents which need to be studied in the future.Wishing the research of this thesis will provide explorative meaning to the evaluation of IND research.