The Impact Of Industrial Structure And Technological Innovation On Energy Consumption In Yangtze River Economic Belt

Recently issued the 13 th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development requires to control the total energy consumption in 5 billion tons of standard coal by 2020.Under the leadership of Central Committee of the Communist Party of China Recomendations for the 13 th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development,we should adjust the rationalization of industrial structure to reduce the industries ’ demand for energy and increase energy efficiency by technological innovation.As a national strategic region of large energy consumption,Yangtze River economic belt should assume the task of reducing energy consumption,and set an example for other zones.Based on the theoretical relationship and current situation of industrial structure,technological innovation and energy consumption,this dissertation selects the relevant data of11 provinces and cities in Yangtze River economic belt from 1998 to 2014.First,we measure the dynamic influence between the industrial structure,technological innovation and energy consumption of Yangtze River economic belt,so as to judge whether there is a long-term trend in energy consumption through the establishment of panel vector autoregressive model(PVAR),the impulse response analysis and variance decomposition method.The results show that energy consumption in Yangtze River economic belt has an increasing trend in the long-term.Therefore,in order to prevent the trend of increasing energy consumption,the panel threshold model is used to measure whether there is a threshold effect(ie,non-linear relationship)on the influence of industrial structure and technological innovation on energy consumption in view of the realistic background of the interaction between industrial structure and technological innovation,so that we can give some advice and some pieces of guidance about decreasing energy consumption in Yangtze River economic belt from the perspective of industrial structure and technological innovation.The following conclusions are drawn from Chapter 4 panel vector autoregressive model(PVAR):(1)The rationalization of industrial structure(reverse index)of the Yangtze River economic belt has a lag effect on the impact of technological innovation on energy consumption.(2)The energy consumption in Yangtze River economic belt is habitual.(3)Under the influence of lag effect and the habitual energy consumption,the long-term energy consumption in the Yangtze River economic belt is increasing.Through the Chapter 5 panel threshold model,the following conclusions are drawn:(1)There is a nonlinear relationship between industrial structure,technological innovation and energy consumption in Yangtze River economic belt.(2)When the rationalization value of industrial structure of Yangtze River economic belt is lower than the threshold value of 0.1284,the technological innovation can reduce the energy consumption to the greatest extent,which indicates that the best way to reduce energy consumption is to pursue the rationalization of industrial structure and technological innovation simultaneously.(3)In terms of specific provinces,only a small number of developed coastal provinces and cities in Yangtze River economic belt whose rationalization value of industrial structure is less than 0.1284,which indicates that the mid-west provinces in Yangtze River economic belt should speed up the rationalization of industrial structure.The biggest innovation of this paper is to combine the industrial structure rationalization,technological innovation and energy consumption to establish a non-linear comprehensive model.The author confirms the existence of inertia in the energy consumption of the Yangtze River economic belt,and puts forward some policy-oriented suggestions to effectively reduce the energy consumption,that is,promoting the rationalization of industrial structure 、technological innovation and reducing the inertia of energy consumption,we can shorten the amount of time that will inevitably lead to an increase in energy consumption trends in order to promote the rapid economic development.To sum up,changes in industrial structure and technological innovation will cause a lag effect on energy consumption.Meanwhile,energy consumption is habitual.Under the combined effect from these three aspects,energy consumption of Yangtze River economic belt shows an increasing trend for a long period,which is an inevitable development stage.What the researchers can do is to work out appropriate policies to minimize the time span of this trend,so that the rationalization value of industrial structure of Yangtze River economicbelt can be as soon as possible less than 0.1284 to achieve that the change of technological innovation will cause the largest drop in energy consumption and attain the ultimate goal of controlling energy consumption in 5 billion tons of standard coal in 2020.