Econometric Studies On China’s Electricity Consumption Characteristics With High Economic Growth

Electricity is the main symbol of contemporary industrial civilization， is one ofthe important inputs into social production and People’s Daily necessities of life.Electric power industry as an important infrastructure industry plays an indispensablerole in the process of development of national economy and improve people’s livingstandard. However in the process of the development of electric power industry， thepower supply is shortage for a long time in our country， power shortage is not onlydirectly cause huge economic losses， also bring so much inconvenience to people’slife. Too much electricity in short-term resulting in a large number of idle fixedassets， bring heavy burden to electric enterprises. Therefore， reveals the electricityconsumption characteristics with China’s rapid economic growth， grasp the basicregularities of the variation of the electric power consumption， make a scientific andaccurate prediction of demand for electricity， making the power supply adapt toeconomic development， that not only has important theoretical significance and hasvery important practical significance.This paper uses the Chinese and foreign economic scholar’s research results andresearch train of thought according with China’s actual. According to the micro andmacro data of China’s electric power consumption， with econometric method， hasstudied on the relationship between the electricity consumption and economic growthin China， electricity consumption periodic characteristics and the effect onelectricity consumption from the industrial structure upgrade. This article throughempirical analysis mainly the following conclusions: First， we use a sequence of gross domestic product (GDP) represents theeconomic growth， The whole society power consumption represents electricityconsumption， collect data during1990to2007. In order to eliminate theheteroscedasticity of the original data， take the logarithm of the data.Testlogarithmic sequence of GDP and power consumption with unit root test andJohansen cointegration test. To analyze whether there is a short-term grangercausality between electricity consumption and GDP relationship，using the ECM andgranger test. The result is verified by using variance decomposition analysis method.Applies granger relationship test between Power consumption growth and threefactors of expenditure method of GDP verify the conclusion again.Studies have foundthat during the sample there is a cointegration relationship between electricityconsumption and GDP， long-term elasticity coefficient is0.882. There is aunidirectional granger from electricity consumption to GDP in the short termrelationship. That is， the power consumption growth in the short term can lead to theimprovement of income level. There is no short-term granger causality from GDP topower consumption， it is showed that the amount of short-term economic growthwill not result in a rapid increase of electricity consumption. From the point ofinspection results， from1990to2007， there is a cointegration relationship betweenelectricity consumption and economic development，there is a strong from electricityconsumption to one-way granger causality of GDP in China.In addition， after the logarithmic data stationarity test on electricityconsumption of three industries and economic growth， test three industrieslogarithmic data on electricity consumption and economic growth with grangercausality test. Due to the important position of industry in the national economy andindustrial electricity consumption accounted for absolute proportion of totalelectricity consumption， we selected the10types of main industry as therepresentative，the industrial impact on the economy for further analysis. The second and third industry power consumption growth and its GDP growth haveco-integration relationship. In the long run， the second industry whenever theelectricity consumption increases by1%， the industry GDP growth of1.5%; Thethird industry every1%increase in electricity consumption， industry GDP growth of0.8%. The first industrial economic growth and the industrial electricity consumptionhad no obvious granger causality. From1990to2007， the electric powerconsumption structure， the second industry has been70%of the total powerconsumption of the above， for the second industry in our country’s rapid economicgrowth has played a powerful role in promoting. Due to the shortage of resources percapita in China， should strengthen the management of the second industry powerconsumption efficiency， further optimize the industrial structure， improve thetechnical level， reduce the industrial power consumption per unit of output.Energy-intensive industries has the most closely relationship between electricityconsumption and economic growth. There is one-way granger causality in buildingmaterials and other non-metallic mineral products from electricity consumption toeconomic growth. The high-energy mechanical and electrical， electronic equipmentmanufacturing industry and economic growth from economic growth to electricityconsumption between the one-way granger causality. In order to promote economicgrowth， at the same time， completes the energy conservation， countries should dofor industrial structure adjustment， reduce the black metal smelting and rollingprocessing industry， etc. The proportion of energy-intensive industries andstrengthen the industrial power consumption control.Third， according to the total national income， selected the representative inShanghai， Guangdong province， Shanxi province， Gansu province as the researchobject， carry out the typical region of the relationship between electricityconsumption and economic growth， and three industry the relationship betweenelectricity consumption and economic growth of in-depth comparative study. Studieshave found that economic developed area has more closely the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth， performance for the electric powerpull function on the economic growth is more apparent. Economicallyunderdeveloped areas， electricity consumption relationship with economic growthboth in terms of the total from the industries are not significant. In general， thedegree of close relationship between electricity consumption and economic growthhas a direct relationship between the industrial structure and economic developmentlevel， electric power industry in the economic developed areas to play a strong rolein promoting economic growth， in the role of the second and the third industry ismore obvious.Fourth， the definition， characteristics and electricity consumption cyclemeasure is put forward on the basis of our country electric power consumption datafor the data stationarity test. Then， according to the time series decompositionmethod to our country electric power consumption data cycle decomposition.Through the decomposition of the general characteristics of China’s electricityconsumption cycle and phases are analyzed. Electricity consumption overallcharacteristics as follows: present the growth， not definitely worth decline;Basically， cycle length for5to10years in the cycle; Overall volatility is relativelysevere， periodic components is in unstable condition， electricity consumptiongrowth is not very stable， wave peak position gradually rise shows that the stabilityof the electric power consumption growth continues to fall; Volatility expansion thansystolic， expansive general fluctuations. Master the characteristics of electricityconsumption fluctuations in our country， how to use the electricity consumptionvariation rule to predict the power consumption growth situation， guide the electricpower planning and power construction.Fifth， total electricity consumption research from research into the more microlevel， the power consumption growth in the composition of the in-depth research，to explore the effects of industrial structure upgrade for the electric power consumption growth，so in the process of industrialization in China and upgrading ofindustrial structure of power quantitative relation between consumption growth. Thispaper first apply the Laspeyres decomposition method in industrial electricityconsumption decomposition， to explore the economic growth， deepening ofindustrialization and industrial economic structure change with dynamic quantitativerelations between the industrial electricity consumption. The industrial electricityconsumption is decomposed into output effect， structure effect and the effect of thedensity. Studies have found that in the process of industrialization in our country，industrial electricity consumption growth depends not only on output effect， butbecause of the structure effect and density effect， makes industrial output growth inpower demand growth rate is far less than that. Along with the further development ofindustrialization， structure effect and density effect will continue to play a role，directly affect the electricity elasticity coefficient and industrial electricityconsumption growth. The government can through adjusting industrial structure andenergy saving technology and measures are taken， greatly reducing the powerconsumption growth， economy growth so as to achieve the aim of reducingelectricity consumption growth， and thus reduce the electric power industry thetremendous pressure on resources and environment.Sixth， based on industrial electricity consumption index decomposition， thispaper further subdivided sectors for the electric power consumption trend of theresearch， found22subdivision industry effect and the effect of the density， powerconsumption structure found in black metal smelting and rolling， power industry，such as high energy consumption industries electricity consumption is very obvious.According to development economics for industrial process on behalf of the industryclassification， this paper classified the corresponding industry in our country. Andthe electricity consumption of three industrial structure effect and the density effectare analyzed in break down year by year. According to our country’s stage of industrialization， and the three industrial structure effect and density effect trend ofelectricity consumption， we give the effect of three kinds of industrial structure inthe industrial process and the effect of the density for electricity consumption growthwill affect the qualitative judgment. Only the third industrial structure effect willcause growth in electricity consumption.Finally， we electricity consumption index of three industry decompositionanalysis， on the basis of the second industry in the industrial electricity consumptionnot only has the important role of， with the industry power consumption and has ahigh degree of correlation. In order to further describe the second industrial electricityconsumption accurately， on the second industry power consumption influencefactors based on the comprehensive analysis， the second industry powerconsumption measurement model is established， and the parameters of the modelwere estimated. Estimate result more accurate depiction of the second industrialelectricity consumption and the relations between the number of all the factors.In this paper， comparison of power consumption in China were studiedsystematically， cycle characteristics and the industrial structure. Overall we graspthe relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in China，reveals the three industry electricity consumption and the main industry sectors andindustries or sectors with the relationship between economic growth and thecomparative analysis of different economic development level regional distinctionbetween electricity consumption and economic growth， study the fluctuationcharacteristics of the electricity consumption and industry structure upgrade on theeffects of power consumption. From the micro-level， to grasp the essence ofindustrial electricity consumption growth， reveal the power consumption growth andindustrial structure change， economy growth and the quantity relation between thefactors such as energy saving measures.Under this article research achievements to comprehensively grasp the high economic growth characteristics and regularity of electric power consumption in ourcountry， thus for the prediction of power consumption growth， the scientificplanning for electric power industry and make reasonable explanation on electricityconsumption elasticity coefficient， at the same time for the government how torealize saving energy and reducing consumption in industrialized process and energysaving effect of new investment evaluation， to promote coordinated development ofpower industry and the national economy provides strong empirical evidence andtheoretical basis.