Risk Assessment Of Credit Debt Default Of Listed Companies

As a way to finance,bonds play an important positive role in China's economic transition,institutional reform as well as in the international financial crisis.During the period of 2004 to 2016,domestic credit debt increased dramatically from 20 billion yuan to 16 trillion yuan.Meanwhile,non-financial credit debt grew from more than 1200 billion yuan to 1.34 billion yuan.The blowout development of credit debt and the 43 credit defaults in August 2016 have made us realize that the evaluation of credit risk is becoming much more important.Through the establishment of Logit model combined with factor analysis method,the paper chooses 13 financial indicators and residents' consumption price index which can reflect the solvency,profitability and growth ability of listed companies as the sample pool from the whole listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen in 2014 to 2015.After the Stata software removes the samples with abnormal values and incomplete information,4252 samples are finally obtained.This paper also researches credit risk of listed companies and evaluate the effectiveness of the model by using Logit regression.The results show that the six indicators such as the current ratio,the quick ratio and the consumer price index have a strong influence on the probability that the listed company will have a credit default risk.The matching rate of the risk assessment model which is based on the Logit regression model and the category of the sample can reach 90.12%.Model evaluation ability is strong.