Forecasting Model To Tax Revenue In Hunan Province With Positivistic Test And Economic Analysis

The tax revenue is a production along with the birth of the state, is in order to meet the material needs which the state achieve its functions. At present, tax revenue has accounted for the state finance income above ninety five percentage in our country; ninety one percentage in Japan; ninety six in England and ninety eight in USA. As it indicated that the tax revenue generally exists in each different system's country, and holds the important position in the state finance income .The scale of the tax is an important index to measure the state financial ability and the range of government functions in respect of economic and social activities. Tax forecasting is so rich in significance for tax plan and forecasting management.The tax revenue plan is of the guidance significance to the entire tax revenue work, therefore a tax affairs institution's important work is to draft the tax revenue plan. And it is based on the forecast of a future section of time tax revenue situation, which instructs the correct formulation and execution of the tax revenue plan. With the development of our country's economic market construction, the national economy movement is no longer controlled by the plan completely. Not only the rate of economic development but also the economic structure adjustment depends on the market demand change. As a result, the tax revenue income project management work can not continue with this traditional pattern by the cardinal number and the estimated increase rate. The current economic form requests establishing a scientific forecast system based on the tax revenue income forecast as soon as possible. Therefore, we can hold fast the initiative of tax work. With the econometrics and the time series method, this article establishes the Hunan Province tax revenue income forecast model together with the real diagnosis examination and the economic analysis to it, providing reference to the science tax revenue collection plan complying with the actual condition of the nation and Hunan province, promoting Hunan's region harmonious economic development.This thesis refer to the tax revenue forecasting method at home and aboard, use of these research results, such as Time Series Tool, Co-integration Analysis ,Error Correction Model and Stepwise Regression. Combination forecasting method is put forward to forecast the tax revenue of Hunan Province based on taking advantage of the two kinds of forecasting method and, historical data is use to simulate tax revenue, and acts well.Through this thesis, combination forecasting model of tax revenue for Hunan Province is put forward to forecast the tax revenue of Hunan Province in the coming years in order to provide the reference for the scientific tax plan accord with the actual state of Hunan Province and regulating government's budget. According to the economy and tax revenue fact that the forecast model reflected, proposes some suggestions.