Research On The Forecast Of Phosphate Ore Supplying And Demanding In China

Phosphate ore is an important and indispensable strategic resource,and it has an extremely important position in the phosphorus chemical industry and the national food production safety.Although the phosphate reserves of China ranked second in the world,only accounted for 5.36% of the total reserves,which is unevenly distributed with less number of high-grade rich mineral resources.The phosphate ore basal reserves are 3.1 billion tons and the ore output are 140 million tons of China in 2005.According to the above,the phosphate ore storage ratio is only 22 years,which is far below the global level(Global ore reserves are 68 billion tons and the output are 241 million tons,thus the global phosphate ore storage ratio is about 282 years).Phosphate ore is not only exhaustive and non-renewable,but also non-secondary recycling.Moreover,it cannot be replaced by the property.Meanwhile,it relates to the sustainable use of resources for future generations.In the future,China's phosphate fertilizer and phosphorus chemical industry may will face a severe crisis,this paper ensure the rational utilization of phosphate ore and keep the sustainable development.Based on the relevant literatures,this paper summarizes the current research status of phosphate ore,the methods of mineral resource prediction and the related index of supply and the demand.It analyzes the current situation of phosphate ore utilization in China,and introduces the related theoretical methods of the supply and demand forecast of phosphate ore.This paper qualitatively analyzes the factors of influencing the supply and demand of phosphate ore in China,and uses the gray relational theory to explore the main index factors that affect the demand of phosphate ore.Through analysis,the phosphate fertilizer production,consumption of yellow phosphorus,practical consumption of agricultural phosphate fertilizer,the level of consumption and the effective irrigation area are the main demand indicators.This paper mainly studies the supply and demand forecast of phosphate ore during 2015-2020.Combining the grey model(1,1)and trend extrapolation,analyzing the aspect of supplying forecast,the result shows that the prediction accuracy is 98.45%,higher than the gray prediction accuracy(96.6%)and trend extrapolation accuracy(97.13%).Using grey neural network model to forecast the demand of phosphate rock resources,and the prediction accuracy is 94.09%,which is higher than that of grey prediction(90.83%).Based on the prediction analysis,the supply and demand of phosphate ore in China is in the state of oversupply in 2020.Based on the forecast results,this paper analyzes the relativity of the phosphate ore in China in the three aspects: the phosphate ore storage ratio,the external dependence degree,and the downstream industry of the chain.By 2020,the reserve-production ratio in China is about 20 years,and the dependence on foreign countries is still low,but according to the reserve-production ratio,external dependence will be greatly increased.As the downstream industry of the phosphate in China,there is a serious phenomenon of excess capacity of the chain phosphate fertilizer industry with weak voice in the international market.Combining above analysis,this paper puts forward some suggestions from two aspects of overcapacity and long-term sustainable development.