Study On Optimal Allocation Of Coal Production Capacity

Coal is the major consumable energy of china,providing energy security for the rapid development of the economy.However,the traditional resource-consuming industries are gradually reduced with the transformation and upgrading of economy,the traditional secondly industry turned to the service industry,which are to some extent inhibited the demand for coal,resulting in the current state of coal oversupply.Accelerate the reform of resource supply side,rational allocation of coal production capacity is not only the coordinated development of regional requirements,but also the protection of energy security.In order to accurate obtain the allocation of coal production capacity in 2020,firstly analyzes the current situation of coal consumption and capacity.Using ARMA model and sector analysis method to predict coal consumption,compared with different models of the fitting results,combined with sub-industry analysis of coal consumption will reach 3.9-4.0 billion tons.Through the analysis of 14 coal base and consumption divided our country into five regions:the first coal supply area include Shanxi,Shanxi,Gansu and other provinces,the second area is Xinjiang,the balance areas include for the Yunnan and Guizhou provinces,the other mainly for the consumption area.The main factors influencing the optimal allocation of regional production capacity are regional economic development,coal endowment restriction,transportation condition,regional ecological environment requirement and alternative energy condition.According to the influencing factors of regional capacity allocation established theoretical model,the lowest cost of calls between regions on the basis of no more than the maximum productivity,provide a method for reference.Combined with the new situation of coal production capacity under the optimal allocation requirements,obtained a reasonable allocation of the various regions,and then come to supply a district of Shanxi three coal base of the configuration.The paper research that our country should increase the development of resourcesin Xinjiang,the consumption area of the production area gap through the Xinjiang region to add new capacity.The overall area of production capacity will focus on two districts,supply a district capacity from Shanxi Inner Mongolia to tilt in Shanxi,Shanxi Province,the proportion of production capacity remained stable at about 35%,production capacity of 900 million tons,On the basis of controlling the total amount,the development of thermal coal in Jinbei area is promoted,the development of coking coal in Jinzhong area is restricted,and the protective development of Jindong anthracite is carried out.In order to achieve the three base production capacity optimization of specific initiatives include: control capacity,optimize the industrial structure,promote coal cleaner production.Finally,some suggestions are put forward on the optimization of regional capacity allocation: the establishment of regional resource integration mechanism,the overall coordination mechanism,the establishment of coal recycling economy demonstration base.