Empirical Researches On International Economic Linkages Based On Complete Trade Model

From the primitive society to the Third Industrial Revolution,with the gradual development of human society,the various countries and regions in the form of self-sufficiency has been gradually unable to meet the growing needs of human life.Because of the social conditions and geographical location and other reasons,different countries and regions,can not produce all the goods to use,so gradually it has formed an international division of labor.Meanwhile,in the human society in which people will exchange goods they need by the principle of exchange of equal.These bases promote the formation of international trade,then various countries and regions have their own import and export trade,which greatly contributed to the further de velopment of human society.Therefore,through studying international trade in the world economy,it has great significance to help us understand world economy.With the rapid development of human society and the economy,the world's total trade volume increased year by year,and its growth rate has been higher than the rate of economic growth.In 1989,total world trade ha d reached $ 3 trillion for the first time,an increase of 7.5 percent over the previous year.By 2015,the world trade volume has reache d $ 33.25 trillion,and this year's total global GDP is $ 77.3 trillion,so trade accounts for about 43% of GDP,consequently trade has a great impact on the world economy.But since a long time,scholars around the world often used the direct trade to study the world economy,this is a measure to study trade and economy decades ago,the import and export of goods and destination is relatively simple,but now because the world economic increasingly close ties,trade between the countries has gone far beyond the bilateral statistics on data,so international trade is included dual direct and indirect trade relations,only by the direct trade volume has not been able to better represent the foreign trade situation.To solve this problem,we created a complete trade model,reflecting the economic relations between countries with mutual trade as the core,and showing the process of establishing complete trade model,the construction of the balance sheet,the derivation of the complete trade coefficient and the definition of the international economic correlation degree,etc.In the application,by using cross-sectional data from the World Trade in 2015 of 100 countries,we calculated the indirect trade between countries and complete trade between countries,which can better reflect the economic ties between countries.The results show that,compared to the direct trade,the full trade model can be used to measure and analyze the i nternational economic relations,and it can provide an effective analysis method and d ecision-making basis to has certain practical significance and reference value.