| A global shipping ETS(Emission Trading System,ETS)is long-awaited in the international community.While shipping ETS would reduce carbon emissions,it would also increase international transport costs,which may have a negative impact on international trade.From the perspective of the shipping companies,this thesis establishes a partial equilibrium model of bulk stock international transport market.By comparing the business strategies of international shipping companies before and after the introduction of ETS,this thesis analyzes the impact of ETS on bulk stock international trade volume,ships’sailing speed,and carbon emissions from international shipping.Theoretical analysis shows that international shipping ETS would reduce carbon emissions,but would also inhibit bulk stock international trade,as well as reduce ships’ sailing speed.It’s noteworthy that its inhibition on carbon emissions is stronger than that of trade volume.Simulation analysis of Sino-Australian iron ore trade as an example shows that when the price of carbon allowance is at range of 0-20$/ton,compared with BAU case,Sino-Australian iron ore trade volume would reduce 0～7.2%,and the carbon emissions from shipping would reduced by 0～17%,which indicates that international shipping ETS would slightly inhibit international trade,but would greatly enhance the quality of the environment at the same time.Sensitivity analysis shows that the extent of the impact of ETS on bulk stock trade are closely related to fuel prices.The thesis take China’s iron ore trade as an example in the simulation part of,simulating analysis the carbon trading policy on the negative impact of iron ore trade and the trade process of carbon.The rate of decline in emissions when the price of carbon allowance is at range of 0-20$/ton.Simulation analysis shows that sacrifice 1%of the trade volume will achieve 6%to 8%of carbon emissions for China’s iron ore trade.When the price of carbon allowance is at range of 0～20$/ton,Sino-Australian iron ore trade volume would reduce 0～1.63%,and the carbon emissions from shipping would reduced by 0～9.39%.The sensitivity analysis of fuel energy prices shows that the impact of carbon trading on international trade is closely related to fuel prices.When the price of carbon emissions in the 0～20 US dollars/ton,fuel prices in the 100 to 600 US dollars/ton,carbon trading policy led to the proportion of international trade in iron ore reduction in roughly 3%.The lower the price of fuel energy,the greater the impact of carbon trading policy on international trade. |
