Analysis On The Risk Of Private Lending And Its Relationship To Monetary Policy

With the development of China's economy,private lending is becoming increasingly active.The scale of private lending continually grows with frequent crisis.Due to its nature of concealment,the risk of private lending displays in the form of private lending disputes.Since 2008,the number of private lending disputes has sharply risen,while private lending disputes are the second most numerous type of civil case in the Chinese courts.It reflects the fact that the problem of high risk in private lending is not fundamentally solved.Private lending is beyond the supervision of the national financial administrative authority;meanwhile,it sources from the free or idle funds.Once private lending rampantly develops,it endangers the stability of the financial market and even the steady and rapid development of the national economy.Therefore,the study on China's private lending has great significance.The definition of private lending in the thesis is based on the legal definition.By combining the experts' view in both home and abroad,the thesis defines private lending as the credit behavior without formal financial institutions between natural person,legal person and other organizations in the main form of money transfers,aiming in profit making through repaying principal and interest in the due date.Economic crimes like illegal absorbing deposit of the public and illegal fund raising are not discussed in the thesis.Private lending is an inevitable outcome of economic development,which plays a supplement and consummate role in China's financial system.Experts from both home and abroad analyze the origin of private lending from terms of legislation,supervision,internal and external cause;however,the macro perspective and quantitative analysis are rarely analyzed.The central bank adjusts monetary supply quantity and interest rate through monetary policy to influence the direction of private capital investment,finally regulating the economic operation.The change of market interest rate and monetary aggregates certainly will influence the risk of private lending.Therefore,the thesis seeks to build a model for private lending risk factors and monetary policy index tools,so as to analyze the risk of private lending from the term of monetary policy.It calculates the incidence of monetary policy on the risk of private lending,so as to find out the risk prevention and control for private lending.Taking the window from 2007 to 2016,the thesis probes into the risk data of private lending based on the 1293 cases from January 2007 to December 2016(totaled 120 months)recorded on China Judgments Online.Three factors,the number of people involved,lending amount and loan interest rate,are chosen to represent the influence range,the influence degree,and the magnitude of the risk.The risk index of private lending is calculated through the factor analysis.To quantitatively analyze the relationship between the risk of private lending and the monetary policy,the thesis chooses the policy for deposit reserve,rediscount policy,OMO(open market operation)and credit policy with quantizing the four monetary policy tools.Then,it builds and empirically tests the model for private lending risk factors and monetary policy index tools in order to analyze the influence of monetary policy on the risk of private loan.The result of empirical test shows that monetary policy has an influence on the risk of private lending.Different monetary policy tools have different degrees of influence.The policy for deposit reserve shows the largest influence,OMO of the second,credit policy of the third and rediscount policy of the last.