Analysis Of The Influencing Factors Of Exchange Rate Fluctuation Under The Background Of RMB Internationalization

We are living in the age of economic globalization now,foreign currency is the important circulating and paying medium in the international economic exchanges,as the price of foreign currency,exchange rate,the volatility characteristics and influence factors of it draw attention of the various economic entities,especially after the RMB to join the SDR,RMB internationalization has entered a new historical period,under the background of new economy,the RMB exchange rate fluctuations will show how the new features,factors affecting the change of what happens,the study of these problems has important significance.Based on combed the classical theory of exchange rate and the research literature on the basis of it is concluded that the theory of the RMB exchange rate influencing factors,and in recent years are introduced in detail the process of RMB internationalization and the general situation of RMB exchange rate changes,theoretically discusses the internationalization of the RMB and the relationship between the RMB exchange rate fluctuations,empirically by using econometric model,the conclusions are consistent with the basic theory,and through the results of the study puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations.An empirical analysis in this paper,the selection of the object of study is on July 1,2005 to February 24,2017 in the central parity of RMB exchange rate,first using GARCH model to describe the volatility characteristics of the exchange rate,the study found that the exchange rate volatility in nearly a decade of volatility significantly increased,and the duration is long,show as deepen the fluctuations of the exchange rate of RMB internationalization process presented the new features,consistent with the theory conclusion.Next this paper to quantify the level of RMB internationalization,and using the VAR model to study the internationalization of the RMB and general economic factors influence on the RMB exchange rate,respectively through the contrastive analysis of the two kinds of influence factors,found the internationalization of the RMB the influence degree of factors on the exchange rate is greater,and the degree of RMB internationalization,RMB exchange rate will rise,the conclusion and 2005 to 2015 RMB exchange ratemovements,but the early and mid-2015-2015 is not consistent with the actual situation,in 2005 to 2015,ten years,indeed shows a tendency of strong appreciation of RMB exchange rate,currency along the lines,ten years,the cumulative appreciation of 22.5%,but since April 2015 of about one and a half years of time,the cumulative rate of depreciation of RMB exchange rate reached 12.3%,the actual situation of this paragraph of time isn't consistent with the conclusion consider may be due to the revaluation in 2015 caused by a lack of stimulation and domestic economic growth,after all,the internationalization of the RMBis not the only factor affecting the exchange rate fluctuations,but the results and the shape of the data range most of the time period is consistent.Through the RMB exchange rate influencing factors research conclusion of this paper puts forward the policy recommendations: moderate control exchange rate risk,correctly guide rate expectations;To further perfect the exchange rate formation mechanism,realize the marketization of exchange rate;Continue to push forward the internationalization of the RMB.