A Study On The Influencing Factors Of Lottery Sales In China Under The Cap System

With the ageing population getting worse,the gap between the rich and the poor is getting bigger,at the same time,the medical system is also imperfect.Our government needs to reform the social welfare policy system,which requires a lot of money.At the same time,government and corporate liabilities are also increasing.On the one hand,our country needs to develop its economy vigorously,on the other hand,our country needs to guarantee social welfare.Investments in social welfare works are becoming increasingly tense.Facing with these increasingly prominent social and financial problems,lottery industry is a key to solve the contradiction.Lottery industry in China has developed nearly three decades,"Double-color ball" is China's first lottery,it is typical and representative.In thirty years,the sales of the "Double-color ball" have been expanding,lottery industry raises a lot of money for social security work.However,in the last two years,the development of "Double-color ball" encountered many problems.Firstly,the growth rate of sales slowed down;Secondly,the prize pool accumulated surplus;Finally,the size of the lottery is too small,and other issues are more and more prominent.Facing with so many prominent problems,it is necessary to research this lottery's system.Comparing China lottery and US lottery,we found that China's lottery has unique cap system.Therefore,this paper studies the influencing factors of lottery sales under the cap system,and figures out the relationships among these factors.Firstly,this article divides these factors into two categories:1,Lottery program external factors;2,Lottery program internal factors.Secondly,for the first type of influencing factors,the second part of this article establishes three moments calculation model and carries out the numerical analysis to external factors.Found that the prize pool on the stimulation of sales gradually weakened with the accumulation of prize pool,when the prize pool is at a high level.The article suggests that raising the cap can consume the prize pool and can stimulate the growth of sales.This conclusion is verified by time series analysis based on break-point detection;Finally,for the second type of influencing factors,in the third part,the article constructs the attractiveness model of lottery program to analyze the design factors of lottery program by LINGO 9.0.The results show that high-income people relative to the low-income people prefer to play the "Big play",at the same time,lottery buyer more like the lottery program with a smaller numbers of winning balls.By analyzing the influencing factors of lottery sales,we found that the high accumulation of prize pool is not enough to stimulate lottery buyer to buy lottery tickets,prize pool funds are idle,to some extent,it is a waste of money.Raising the cap amount will help to consume a portion of the prize pool and help to increase sales.But in the long run,increasing the base of the lottery buyer and improving the bad structure of the lottery buyer are the keys to promote the lottery industry benign and fast development.