Key Risks Identification And Measurement Of Traffic Infrastructure On PPP Projects

The construction of transportation infrastructure can accelerate the development of national and regional economic,it also promote development process of the city effectively.However,because of the vast investment scale,long cycle and the complex risk in the construction of transportation infrastructure,the country have to introduce PPP model to meet the increasing needs of project development.The literal translation of so-called PPP is the partnership in private and public,it refers to compete a public service through endeavor of the public sector and private sector.There are many advantages in the construction of transportation infrastructure after the introduction of PPP model,for instance,PPP model,one of project finance,it reduce greatly the financial pressure for government.At the same time,PPP model brings to rich management experience and greatly improve the efficiency of operation.However,even if PPP model have many visible advantages,but the project risks on PPP model are very complex.It makes private sector stop under the aura of the PPP model and it cause the phenomenon that "Best game No One Played".Whether we can effectively solve the risk of PPP project or not is related to the long-term development of the PPP model.This paper tries to solve the problem that the key risk identification of PPP project on the transportation infrastructure,to seize the principal contradiction on the PPP risk management,to lay a solid foundation for the successful management of PPP project risk.The main contents of this paper are as follows:Firstly,literature research,especially to the domestic and foreign research about the risk identification and risk measurement of the PPP project risk,at last,it establish the background and significance of the research topic,based on the domestic and foreign research,the missing parts on the previous literature are found where mean the single index problem of risk factors.Taking the above problems as the starting point,the further research is carried out.The second part is the related theoretical study of key transportation infrastructure PPP project risk,it begins to introduce the PPP model theory,traffic infrastructure definition and characteristics,the PPP model of misunderstanding.Then,the identification of risk study are described and several methods of risk identification are introduced,according to which a common check table method and based on a lot of risk identification of previous studies,this paper establish the risk factors of traffic infrastructure PPP project and analyze the explanation of various risks.The risk identification is to pave the way for the subsequent model calculations.The third part is the description of Grey relational theory and the description of risk model on the basis of the theory.First of all,through the applicability of Grey Theory on the study of PPP project risk,then the Grey correlation model is constructed.In the construction of models,through the use of three different sets of sequences,the two groups are resembling but not the numbers,two groups are alike on numbers but not resembling,from the practical point of view,the regression analysis method and statistical analysis method to find the model face the problem on the ordering of risks where numerical close to the extent of the problem,and then make use of multiplicative synthesis principle,the original model was improved and prove the axioms of Grey correlation model,and finally construct the improved Grey correlation model.In terms of data sources,this paper did not use the past second-hand data,but the organization of the questionnaire survey,the time from September 2015 to April 2016.Questionnaires are issued mainly by e-mail,wechat links and paper-based,total sends out 200 questionnaires,there are 52 valid questionnaires,PPP project risk loss,risk probability,risk treatment efficiency and similar risk management experience are counted,and according to the above improvement of the new model to calculate the correlation degree of each risk,ultimately identify the key risks in China’s traffic infrastructure PPP project.The fifth part is the analysis and study for the above results,there are the conclusion which is not the same conclusion with the previous literature are found,such as the residual value risk,legal risk,and make a reasonable explanation for the differences,ultimately make the analysis of the results of eight key risk and point out some suggestions.The last part draws the conclusion of this research,and points out the deficiency in the research and prospects for the later research of this problem.