| After the reform and opening up,China adopted a strategy of"Tilted to the east,Gradient propulsion" non-balanced regional economic development,the rapid rise of coastal cities,and gradually promote the development of the Mainland,making China's economic strength improved significantly,but at the same time,regional economic development gap between the rich and the poor is widening.If the regional development cannot be timely guided,it will not only affect the effective allocation of resources,but also increase the unstable factors and affect the social order.In order to deal with this problem,from the beginning of the Ninth Five-Year Plan,China has proposed to gradually and actively solve the problem of regional gap expansion and implement the coordinated development strategy of regional economy.And then put forward scientific development at the Third Plenary Session of the 16th CPC Central Committee,21th century has implemented that support the western development(1999),revitalization of the northeast old industrial base(2003),promote the rise of the central region(2004)and a series of strategic measures,the 13th Five-Year Plan once again pointing out that to promote regional coordinated development,efforts to narrow the regional development gap.In view of the importance of regional imbalanced development of China,it is necessary to use the empirical and decomposing methods to study the relationship between industrial structure and development imbalance on the basis of previous research.On the one hand,from the empirical study of the impact of imbalance development factors,the industrial structure are closely related to the imbalance development,on the other hand,in the empirical model,the industrial structure generally appears as a control variable,it is necessary treat as a core variable to explain the regional development imbalance.It is clear that the industrial structure in at least has two aspects related to the development of imbalances.First,the irrational industrial structure or slow adjustment it will lead to slow economic development,reasonable industrial structure can effectively use their own factor endowments,promote regional economic development,thereby narrowing the gap with developed areas.At the same time,the factor endowment of a region is not fixed,but with the economic development,if not timely adjustment of industrial structure,it will limit economic growth.Second,industrial policy has an influence on the development imbalance through the industrial structure.As a transitional country,the government's industrial policy plays an active role in economic and social development,and plays an important role in guiding the regional economic development.Which is one of the main reasons for the formation of regional disparities.However,the effect of industrial policy is usually difficult to measure.The direct reflection of industrial policy is the change of industrial structure.The previous studies also prove that the changes of the industrial structures are basically consistent with the industrial policy of national strategic level.Therefore,it is reasonable to use the industrial structure as the proxy index of industrial policy,and then analyze the impact of industrial structure skewness on the development imbalance.Before the empirical study,it need to measure the industrial structure skewness indicators and the development of imbalances.In the estimation of industrial structure skewness,we use the optimal industrial structure model to redefine the Theil index to represent the industrial structure skewness.Specifically,The industrial structure skew need to calculate the difference between actual industrial structure and the optimal Industrial structure of each city,and use city GDP of the province's GDP ratio as a weight.Among them,the most critical is to measure the optimal industrial structure.According to the optimal industrial structure growth rate model,we can calculate the production technical characteristics ?ij,Lerner index Nit,capital growth rate rij,t,and discount factor ?ij,t,And then the optimal output value of each industry and the corresponding optimal industrial structure can be calculated according to the actual output value of each industry.Optimal industrial structure model is based on the labor,capital,technology and other economic conditions,just to characterize the dynamic changes in factor endowments,and therefore more conducive to the study of industrial structure skewness and the relationship between the development of imbalance.In the development of the imbalance index,we use the latest population-weighted coefficient of variation decomposition method,and uses the "center-periphery" spatial division to calculate the development of imbalance index of each provinces,including imbalances in overall development,imbalanced development within the group,and imbalanced development between groups.In the construction of estimate model,the total development imbalance,imbalance within the group,the imbalance between groups were interpreted as a dependent variable,industrial structure skew as the core explanatory variables,while adding human capital,infrastructure,foreign direct investment as control variables,Using the fixed effect or random effects estimate the model.The results show that the industrial structure skewness significantly affects the total imbalance and imbalance within the group,while the impact of the imbalance between groups is not obvious.In the control variables,human resources aggravates the unbalanced development among groups,reduces the overall imbalance of development.Railway mileage is not conducive to alleviate the overall development of imbalances and imbalance within the group,but to ease the development of imbalance between groups.The reason for this difference may be due to the "center-periphery" grouping method,the intra-group is homogeneity,and the inter-group is larger differences,however,the impact of imbalanced development has many factors,so the effect of the development of imbalance is difficult to reflect in inter-group.Therefore,to relieve the imbalance of development,special attention needs to be paid to the adjustment of the industrial structure within the central and peripheral areas,so as to alleviate the unbalanced development within the group and the overall development imbalance.As imbalances among the groups contribute more to the overall development imbalance,special attention should be given to mitigating regional heterogeneity in the regional development of imbalances,so that the central and peripheral areas can complement each other,but not a vassal relationship.At the same time to ease the imbalance between groups not only need to adjust the industrial structure,it should also pay attention to adjust other factors to achieve more significant results.In addition,due to the heterogeneity of various regions in China,the state in the formulation of regional coordinated development policy,it cannot simply treat different areas as a whole part,but should take full account of the provincial or urban economic structure status and endowment advantage,guide the regional industrial structure to a greater degree close to the optimal industrial structure,to play its local comparative advantage,and always pay attention to changes in the endowment structure,in a more appropriate time to upgrade the industrial structure.At the same time,we should pay attention to the balanced development of industrial structure,reasonable treat the relationship of the proportion of each industrial to avoid excessive attention to the tertiary industry,ignoring the base role of secondary industry,resulting the uncoordinated of the industrial structure. |
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