Study On The Impact Of China's Urban Land Supply Policy On The Vacancy Of New Commercial Housing

At present,China's housing market is facing a double pressure:first and second tier cities housing prices rose too fast,while third and fourth tier cities have a high vacancy.As the main idea of reform in various fields,supply side reform in the housing market also led the reform of thinking.Land supply as one of the important elements of housing supply,should be the focus of supply side reform tool.The task of this paper is to analyze the impact of land supply policy on the vacancy of commercial housing and the degree of impact.Specifically,one is to explore what is the conduction mechanism for land supply policy in the real estate market?The second is to explore the validity and delay days of China's land supply.Third,whether the land supply policy has an impact on the vacancy of commercial housing?How does it affect?What is the effect?The purpose of this paper is to provide reference for the effective implementation of the current inventory task,the improvement of housing supply side reform and the improvement of China's land supply policy.Based on two perspectives,this paper discusses the mechanism of land supply policy on the vacancy of housing.First,it analyzes the impact of land supply policy on the supply and demand of housing market from the perspective of land supply area,price,mode,structure and taxation.Second,from the "expectation channel","production function channel","supply efficiency channel",through different paths,it analyzes the impact of land supply policy on housing supply and demand,thus affecting housing vacancies.Based on the analysis of the correlation,and the model for housing vacancy influencing factors,the paper verifies the validity of the mechanism in the theoretical analysis.It further reveals that the land supply policy is one of the factors influencing the vacancy of commercial housing.Furthermore,at different times,different cities,their mechanism of action and regulation effects are also significant differences.The empirical sample is the panel data of 35 large and medium cities in China from 2004 to 2014.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)The land supply policy has a great influence on the vacancy of the house and it has a time lag effect.In general,the number of land supply in the current period affects the housing market through the "expectation channel",in a negative relationship with the housing vacancy.In the long-term,the number of land supply affects the housing market through the "production function channel",in a positive relationship with the housing vacancy,lag for 3 years.The previous year's land price growth rate affects housing market through the "expectation channel",in a positive relationship with the housing vacancy.(2)The purchase restriction policy has a significant effect on the implementation effect of the land supply policy.Before the purchase policy,the "production function channel" effect is more significant,the number of land supply 2 years ago has a positive impact on housing vacancy.After the purchase policy,the "expectation channel" effect is more significant.The amount of land supply that year has a negative impact on residential vacancy."Expectation channel" for land price growth is more effective before the purchase policy,the purchase policy increased the uncertainty of expectation.Contrast before and after the purchase,the purchase policy reduces the efficiency of land supply,making the land control effect weakened.(3)There are significant differences in the implementation effect of land supply policy between cities.The number of land supply has a significant impact on low and medium housing price cities,while the impact on high housing price cities is not significant.In the mode of operation,the number of land supply has a negative correlation with medium housing price cities,housing vacancy through the "expected channel".It has a positive correlation with low housing price cities' housing vacancy through the "production function channel",lag for 2 years.Land supply price growth has a significant impact on high and medium housing price cities,while the impact on low housing price cities is not significant.The differences of cities results verify the reliability of the "supply efficiency channel".Low housing price cities usually have more potential land supply area,more relaxed market environment,and thus the land supply flexibility is higher,the supply efficiency is higher.The effect of land policy regulation is better in low housing price cities.The article puts forward the following policy recommendations:for the stable"expectation channel",we should establish and improve the scientific and rational land supply policy system,improve the land market information release system,guide people to have reasonable expectations.For improving the "production function channel" and "supply efficiency channel",we should strengthen the real estate market monitoring,increase the disposal of idle land,adjust the land functional structure and construct the housing leasing system.In view of the differences of urban results,the land supply policy should be targeted,varies from city to city.In view of the differences caused by purchase policy,we should actively promote the study of real estate tax collection,to establish a long-term mechanism to adapt to the laws of the market.