| The rapid economic development of our country has attracted worldwide attention.However,the current economic growth tends to slow down and has entered a state of steady rise.From the initial stage to the "three phase superposition",the new normal state has been transformed.The momentum of economic development is in the adjustment stage,the traditional growth point is in the maintenance state,and the new growth point has already sprouted.At present,the global economic growth is poor.The domestic economic growth is slow,coupled with the continuous adjustment of structure and the influences of various factors,resulting in many industries are facing a situation of insufficient demand.And business profits have been seriously affected.cash flow decline is an indisputable fact,business entities in trouble.The blind expansion of the banks led to NPL ratio continued to rise.With the stage of economic development is entering new normal,commercial banks also have a new normal,in the new situation,the credit risk also appear in a new form.Industry overcapacity leads to increased risk,and the policy risk of structural adjustment is unpredictable.The interest rate market is speeding up and the operational risk increasing.From the CBRC statistics,as of the end of 2016,the NPL ratio of commercial banks climbed,as high as 1.81%.It’s getting closer to the red line 2%.When evaluating the quality of commercial banks and measuring business performance,one of the important indexes is non-performing loan ratio.In China’s financial system,commercial bank is the core department,so the asset quality decline can trigger a series of social problems.On the one hand,commercial banks are facing declining profits and debt pressure lack of capacity,which is the main cause of bank runs.On the other hand,bad loans are a threat to national economic development,which may led to inflation.Therefore,when face to the problem of non-performing loans,we should pay enough attention to it and take effective measures to deal with it.Based on the analysis of credit,financial and commercial bank internal fragility theory,bank behavior theory,this paper choose the typical joint-stock commercial bank-China Merchants Bank-as an example,give full consideration to the China Merchants Bank Non-performing loan status.Taking the new economic situation as the background,the paper analyzes and studies the factors that affect the non-performing loan of China Merchants Bank,and puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions.Respectively from quantitative and qualitative point,this paper focuses on analysis of influencing factors of China Merchants Bank loan.This paper adopts the new research model,makes a qualitative analysis of the influence factors of credit risk from two aspects of the macro economy and internal management of commercial bank.In the aspect of quantitative analysis,basing on the statistical data of GDP growth rate,the growth rate of the money supply,manufacturing PMI index and provision coverage from 2011 to 2015,the study used a multiple linear regression model to research on these four factors respectively,and obtains good results.The four indexes are negatively related to the NPL ratio of China Merchants Bank,namely,the higher the growth rate,the lower the non-performing loan rate of China Merchants Bank.Shanshui Cement non-performing loan case explore the reasons of bad loans and the defects of the credit risk management of China Merchants Bank,and proposes countermeasures and suggestions on how to prevent the increased risk of bad loans.It is helpful to contribute to the profit model transformation of commercial banks,improve the quality of credit assets,actively develop green credit,enhance the consciousness of risk management,and adapt to the new economic normal. |
