Research On The Early Warning System Of Financial Risk In P2P Network Lending

The Internet Finance is a great change in the financial industry and the financial market gets great development because of the emergence of Internet Finance.The Internet Finance includes P2 P network lending,crowd-funding and third party payment,etc.By lower threshold,faster capital operation,lower cost and other advantages,P2 P network lending is developing rapidly.As an internet financial innovation model in this network era,P2 P network lending has become a very important tool to alleviate the financing gap of small and medium-sized enterprises and deal with private capital investment demand,on the other hand,as an important part of financial inclusion and democratic finance,P2 P network lending has realized the individual information exchange,resource sharing,capital flow between body and body.But the P2 P network lending industry has spawned many "China characteristics" new models and new business during its development in China,and the internal risk management and external financial supervision become more complex.Because of the above all,P2 P network lending industry exposed various risks,and financial risk is the most prominent.How to identify and control the financial risk to promote the healthy development of the P2 P network lending industry is the urgent problem to be solved and the reason and significance of this paper.Based on the above background,this paper made the P2 P network lending platform in China as a research object by using a combination of theoretical and empirical research methods to conduct a comprehensive study of the financial risk and construct the financial early-warning system.First of all,this paper based on a large number of domestic and foreign researches on P2 P network lending industry and financial early warning research results and that laid the theoretical foundation for the subsequent paper writing.Secondly,on the basis of the general situation of the development of the industry and the main risk characteristics and causes of the study,this paper made a more comprehensive analysis of the financial risks faced by the P2 P network lending platform.Furthermore,this paper selects the early warning indicators of financial risk based on the CAMEL evaluation system and uses factor analysis method and SVM classification model of P2 P network lending platform to construct the early warning system of financial risk.Finally selects 20 typical platform as research samples and according to the empirical analysis of financial risk early warning results combined with the financial risk characteristics of the P2 P network lending platform,this paper puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions in order to prevent financial risks.In this paper,we find that P2 P network lending platform financial risk is mainly manifested in the capital risk,liquidity risk,profitability risk and asset quality risk and other aspects,and among them liquidity risk is more prominent and has a greater impact on financial risk.Based on the evaluation system of CAMEL index,this paper can comprehensively reflect the financial risk faced by P2 P network lending platform and the early warning accuracy of the SVM early warning model is higher.Among them,the accuracy of the early warning model based on the kernel function Sigmoid is the highest which can accurately predict the financial risk of the P2 P network lending platform.The establishment of early-warning system of the P2 P network lending financial risk can effectively identify the financial risks faced by the platform.Based on the above all,by improving the financial risk prevention awareness,improving the risk management system P2 P network lending platform and establishing statistical monitoring mechanism to prevent risks the P2 P network lending platform can seek long-term,healthy development model.With the continuous optimization of the financial market environment,P2 P network lending industry will usher in a new round of development and it will become an important driving force to promote the development of China's financial industry.