Modeling Commuting Travel Behavior Based On Cumulative Prospect Theory

As an important component of residents' travel demand,urban commuting has a property of universality.The rapid growth of commuting demand during peak hours and meanwhile the inappropriate allocation of traffic resource have increasingly worsened the "city disease" called traffic congestion,which brings about a chain of reaction such as increasing residents' travel cost,lowering vehicle speed,frequent traffic accident,and deteriorating city environment,and so forth.As a traffic demand management measure,opening High Occupancy Vehicle Lane to promote commuter to carpooling travel or encouraging commuter to take Park-and-Ride mode to commuting travel that will contribute to the implementation of reasonably inductive traffic demand and the alleviation and even the solution of traffic congestion and parking difficulty in urban central area.And now the internet plus era has given an accelerative birth to the website of "carpooling" and the corresponding client software,which will provide convenience for residents' carpooling travel.To study into commuter's inner decision-making behavior when traveling in these certain scenarios is conducive to deepening the understanding and cognition to formation mechanism of traffic congestion,and finding effective ways to solve the problem of traffic congestion.On the other side,taking account of travelers' individual preference characteristics of risk attitude,reference dependence and loss aversion,"Prospect Theory" or "Cumulative Prospect Theory" has been effectively testified by scholars at home and abroad that the main theoretical points of them generally remain in line with traveler's risk decision-making behavior,scholars argue that conducting the research of traveler's decision-making behavior based on the "Prospect Theory" or"Cumulative Prospect Theory" would acquire more realistic results.Concretely,following research efforts were carried out in this thesis.From the two perspectives of traffic road network equilibrium and travel route choice,three aspects of research have been done.Firstly,suppose that the variable term of travel time on highway follows a discrete distribution,and then building and further analyzing three types of commuters' decision making model involved carpooling travel with considering openning HOV and general purpose lane which exist uncertainty.The corresponding equilibrium result analysis between "Cumulative Prospect Theory" and "Expect Utility Theory" and the individual preference parameter sensitivity analysis are also conducted.Then considering the Park-and-Ride and private car mode in an uncertain commuting scene which means that the variable of travel time on highway subject to a continuous and normal distribution and analyzing the CPT-based equilibrium status of traffic system and how the effect of intercepting cars of Park-and-Ride mode on urban central area shows.The promotion effect of adjusting individual preference and traffic policies such as parking fees or risk management on commuter's perception value is also explored..The last part further discusses the feasibility of utilizing interval number to represent traveler's inner fuzzy perception of travel time,and then connect interval number with commuter's reference dependence to establish a CPT-based route choice model.And the problem of whether this theoretical model can reflect commuter's attitude towards risk or uncertainty is testified by travel scenario analysis.