Model Research Of Departure Time And Travel Route Choice Based On Prospect Theory

At present, our country is researching, exploiting and implementing initially Advanced Traveler Information System (ATIS). It is more accord with choice's mechanism of traveler and traffic condition at the circumstance of ATIS to research the choosing behaviors of departure time and travel route of traveller under tne condition of providing real-time information, and to establish the choice model which is dynamic. Therefore, the dissertation's research has important theory meaning and practice meaning. Based on prospect theory, to research problem of travel choice of traffic field, this can extends analyse method and research channel. In addition to, this can obtains result of travel choice which is more accordwith real situation under uncertainty situation.Based on the basal idea and decision-making framework of prospect theory, the dissertation analyses the decision-making process of traveller's travel. By taking traveller's accepted early arrival time and work start time as two"reference points", and taking traveller's preferred arrival time as a"pseudo"reference point, then establishes the vulue function. The dissertation takes 30 minutes as a time interval to devide the time scope which traveler can choose to research how traveller will forecasts route's travel time when traveller starts off at different period of time. By setting up a arrival time satisfying interval, to research whether traveler will change departure time and how change it when he or she needs change next travel.Based on the research of departure time choosing, using the update idea of Bayesian theory to research that traveller how to use real information to update and modulate the route's travel time. Bying analysing traveller's individual subjective probability of likelihood result after choosing travel route, so ascertains decision weighting function. Combining the vulue function which is ascertained at edite phase, thus obtains route's prospect value at evaluate phase.Constructing a road network which is relatively simple, and by supposing correlated parameters of road network attribute and models to make a calculate example-analyse in order to explain embodyly the process of traveller's departure time and travel route choice, in addition to, to analyse and summarise the result of travel choice of departure time and travel route.