The Research About Employment Threshold Effect Of Trade In Services In China

Employment is related with country economic development all the time.Nowadays,the economic situation of China appears complex.There exits some issues under the industry development,such as structural disequilibrium,slow development.Affected by the global economic crisis,as the secondary industry surplus outputs,its capability about absorbing worker is decreasing,and even sluggish,which is difficult to relieve the employment pressure.After entering the WTO,the tertiary industry in China is well-developed,which has potential ability absorbing workers.Meanwhile the development situation of services trade in our country is in well pattern,Especially,the services export is able to promote economic growth by a large margin sharply,further,promoting domestic employment.As for services import,it is able to bring technology for domestic industry via technology spillover effect,promoting domestic technology in services sector,which do a significant effect on employment skills in our country.Rise of the services make services trade possess more and more significant position in economic active in our country,which becomes the most important tool to adjust industrial structure in China,gradually.As the change of economic policy and system,the economic variables is changing usually,and the variables appearing non-linearity feature,such as structural changes and stationary fluctuation.The non-linearity theory suggest that economic variables has different dependence-linear association in the different situation.Existing research results about services and employment regard the effect of services trade on employment as linear relation,which ignores the economic background and the effect of mediate elements,no matter in theory analysis or in empirical analysis.The change of state is always varying,so,in other to study the real economic issues,especially,under the complicated situation,the research about non-linearity effect of services trade on employment is becoming the focus of all social states concern.The non-linearity research about services trade and employment has deeply significance and guidance value on how to develop the services trade in our country and how to effectively solve the employment.This paper adopts non-linearity threshold panel data model,and studys the threshold effect of services trade on employment,from two views,such as services export and services import.First,we get to know the services trade research status,theory and the current status of services trade and employment by collating the literature and data.Second,we set up a mathematical model to analysis the threshold effect of services trade on employment.Thirdly,according the theory analysis result,we establish the non-linearity threshold panel model,as we suggest during the sample period,the effect of services trade on employment only exit one structural vary point.Therefore,we select the single panel threshold model to regress.Finally,based on the theory analysis,we expending the the cobb-douglas function,adopted the non-linearity single panel threshold model to empirical regress and study the threshold effect of services trade on employment,from two perspective as,services export and services import.Based on the above study,the paper come to the below conclusion.(1)There exits threshold effect of services trade on employment,besides,services import and export has the different threshold on employment.In the export model,we prove the significant threshold feature based on industry yield.While the industry yield reach the threshold value sides,both effect of services export on employment is positive,however,the extent that services export promote employment is different.As the rise of services export promoting the industry yield,the extent of the positive effect of service export on employment is getting strong.(2)In the services import model,we prove the significant threshold feature based on technical efficient.While the technical efficient reach the threshold value sides,both effect of services import on employment is negative,however,the extent that services import inhibiting effect is different.As the rise of services import promoting the technical efficient,the extent of the inhibiting effect of service export on employment is getting strong(3)In the services import model,we prove the services import variables exit the significant effect based on the cross term between technical efficient and industry.When the threshold variable don't reach the special value,service import decrease the employment as usual,while,the threshold variable exceed the special value,service import promote the employment.This suggest that services import promote the technical efficient which reach the scale economic,and accelerate the development of both new market and workers.In conclusion,we suggest that services trade has the non-linearity effect on the employment based on the other variable by analyzing the effect of services trade on employment in theory.By analyzing in empirical,we prove the no-linearity effect.The non-linearity study about service trade in our country,helps to know the real services status,which provides the reference to the development of the services and services trade,besides,it helps to know the demand forecasting of the employment market,which promote the development of macroeconomic more steady and sustainable.