Research On The Linkage Effect Of The Industrial Structure Upgrading And College Students’ Employment

Higher-education institutions in China started to expand enrollment scale since 1999.By 2014,the number of university graduates had reached 7,130,000.Because of the expansion,obtaining a satisfactory job seems increasingly harder than before for university graduates nowadays.The job problem becomes so thorny that the government has to treat it seriously.Many scholars have done a lot of research to this problem and some of them think upgrading the industrial structure could be listed to solve this problem.Meanwhile,several studies have found that university graduates’employment could promote to upgrade the industrial structure the other way round.But most of scholars ignore the endogeny or interaction of the two variables and do just one-way research on this problem.The results may be not effective.So I build a set of simultaneous equations and use three-stage least squares(3SLS)to estimate them simultaneously in this paper,so that we could get an effective result in consideration of the endogeny or interaction and offer better suggestions for the government.Firstly,I analyse the correlation between university graduates’ employment and upgrading the industrial structure theoretically,and then list the industrial structure scale and university graduates’ employment proportion in statistics of east,west,middle and total in China from 2001 to 2012.Taking the development trend charts of each part based on the statistics,I find that the statistics of university graduates’employment and upgrading the industrial structure have a similar trend in development.Secondly,using the 12 years’ panel data model in 32 provinces to estimate the correlation between university graduates’ employment and upgrading the industrial structure in single equation,I find that there is on significant correlation between them.But through systematic regression in three-stage least squares method,we find that upgrading the industrial structure could significantly promote the employment of university graduates and the effect is great.On the other hand,the employment of university graduates also significantly promote to upgrade the industrial structure,but only in a small effect.To compare the difference among regions and get a robust regression results,I use 3SLS to regress simultaneous equations in statistics of east,west and middle China.The regression results are consistent with national statistics.It proves the interaction between the two variables exists.After the comparative analysis of regression coefficients,we could draw conclusions that there is no obvious skill-biased technological progress in China and the effect of the two variables’ interaction among regions is different.Based on the above analysis,this paper offer some advices about promoting to upgrade the industrial structure and the employment of university graduates.