Research On The Social Stability Risk Assessment Of Major Projects

With the rapid development of economy in our country, and the continual acceleration of industrialization, more and more major projects are put on the agenda. The major projects could greatly improve the people's living standards, but it also contains crisis. Some projects planning are not reasonable, the environmental pollution problems caused by the project, the distribution of benefits and other issues can not be effectively solved, which will cause dissatisfaction among the masses, and potential risk about social stability. If these risks are ignored, or can not be effectively resolved, it could lead to social instability events, result in adverse social or political influences. Therefore,the social stability risk assessment on major projects is very necessary.The essence of social stability risk assessment of major projects is to determine the risk indicators by making systematic investigations on risk factors which influence the social stability, and make quantitative assessments on these indicators to acquire risk ratings by using scientific assessment methods, then make relative measures for risk control, which could avoid and control potential social stability risks during the process of project implementation, prevent risks from happening and ensure the smooth implementation of the project. In practical work, projects contain various risk factors because of the types of projects and the places where they are conducted. Based on the theory of the social stability risk assessment on major projects and taking the Zhengzhou metro line X as an example, a stable social risk index system for metro project is established by using processes and methods of identifying risk, and the social stability risk assessment model is built through the method of AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, and get the levels of social stability risks through quantitative analysis, which could be used to analyze the evaluation results and provide the risk prevention measures and control strategies.The main conclusions in this paper are as follows:(1)Based on the theoretical studies on the social stability risk assessment of major projects at home and abroad, the relative theoretical background of such assessment are systematically explained and the probability of risk occurrence based on social stability risk assessments, grading standard of loss and acceptance criteria are formulated.(2)On the basis of the identification about the social stability risk factors, selection the questionnaire method and experts investigation to identify the risk indexes in metro construction project. Eventually identified four level indicators and sixteen secondary indicators,thereby establishing the social stability risk assessment indicators.(3) By combining AHP with fuzzy comprehensive assessment, social stability risk assessment model are built. Model construction in essence is to make explains in detail on improved and adaptive assessment method of X number metro line and scientifically quantify the steps during the process of comprehensive assessment. Through AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, make quantitative calculation to determine the comprehensive risk ranks. By the analysis of assessment results, the more effective measures of risk control are attained. This research will provide comprehensive ideas for project managers theoretically and practically.(4)This paper has great practical significance in the context of risk society, and its important to enrich the social stability risk assessment of theory. In addition, the evaluation criteria and evaluation methods that have established have strong practicability and maneuverability, and have a strong practical significance under the environment that the evaluation criteria are not uniform.