A Dynamic Study On Impacts Of E-commerce Development On China’s Export To Countries Along The "The Belt And Road"

In recent years,the concept of "Internet Plus" has been rooted in peoples’ hearts,such as e-commerce,Internet financial(ITFIN),online travel,online video,online real estate and so on."Internet Plus" that spawned numerous emerging industries,are the further practical results of Internet thinking,promote the continual evolution of economic forms to drive the vitality of the social and economic entity,providing a broad network platform for the reform,innovation and development.In 2015 June 10,premier of the Stata Council Li Keqiang pointed out in the executive meeting of the Stata Council,promoting the healthy and rapid development of cross-border e-commerce and realizing optimal into and optimal out through "Internet Plus Foreign Trade" is conducive to expanding consumption,promoting the development and upgrading of an open economy,creating a new economic growth point.The key of seizing this opportunity is how to effectively use the e-commerce development to promote the sustainable development of China’s foreign trade.In the global export downturn,with the implementation of the national strategy "The Belt and Road",the Maritime Silk Route and Silk Road Industrial Zone are increasingly shaped,the "Silk Road on the Net"——cross-border e-commerce is the inevitable choice to let the traditional trade to achieve transformation through the concept of "Internet Plus Foreign Trade".Therefore,in order to adapt to the trends of the times and response to the national top-level strategy,this paper researches the dynamic impacts of e-commerce development on China’s export,based on the sample of countries along the "The Belt and Road".On the basis of sorting the existing literatures,this paper firstly constructs the index system to measure e-commerce development level,and calculates the China’s e-commerce development index in 1999-2014 using related data and entropy weight method.Secondly,this paper estimates the binary margin of export from China to 60 countries along the "The Belt and Road",using the six-digit level of the Harmonized System(HS)trade data in 1999-2014 from UN comtrade.This paper analysis the impact of e-commerce development on export from four angles of transaction costs theory,trade agency theory,trade costs theory and trade risk theory.Econometric model is constructed based on the analysis of theory and mechanism of impact of e-commerce development on export.Then,this paper uses panel vector autoregressive model(PVAR)to do empirical research,and does the stationary test,and ascertains the optimal lag orders of PVAR models,and does the analysis of pulse response function and variance decomposition based on the estimation of generalized method of moments(GMM),exploring the trajectory of dynamic impact of e-commerce development on China’s export,especially binary margin of export.There are several conclusions:(1)The trajectories of dynamic impact of e-commerce development on binary margin of export and on the export growth rate share a similar trend,positive,negative,positive,and then gradually convergent.It promotes the growth of export volume,and makes more contributions to the variation of intensive margin than to the variation of extensive margin.(2)The size of export markets promotes the growth of binary margin,and makes more contributions to the variation of extensive margin than to the variation of intensive margin.But it always impedes the growth of export volume,and has the largest effect on export volume.(3)Productivity has a negative effect on export volume,and makes the least contribution to the variation of export volume.It also has a great negative effect on binary margin,but it has a tiny positive effect on extensive margin since the second phase,and makes more contributions to the variation of extensive margin than to the variation of intensive margin.(4)The number of Internet users in export destination country has a negative impact on the export volume,and promotes the intensive margin and extensive margin,but it restrains the growth of extensive margin in the second phase.And it makes the largest contributions to the variation of intensive margin among all the factors.According to the research conclusions,this paper puts forward some corresponding policy suggestions:(1)giving full play to the positive effect of e-commerce development on binary margin of export and avoiding all kinds of risks;(2)fully tapping the consumption potential of export markets,appropriately increasing the heterogeneity of export product;(3)reducing the trade cost of export,especially the fixed trade cost;(4)promoting the progress of science and technology,and improving the productivity.