The Influence Of The Rising Housing Prices To Trade On Export Scale,Extensive Margin,Intensive Margin,Product Quality And Export Industry Upgrading For Chinese Enterprises

In recent years,the continuous rise of housing price and its impact are hot issues in China.This paper mainly studies from the perspective of housing price rise and export of Chinese enterprises.First of all,through literature review,this paper summarizes the relevant research on housing price rise,enterprise export scale,export binary margin,export product quality and industrial upgrading.Secondly,based on the"Dutch disease" model and Heterogeneous firm trade model,this paper presents the rise of housing price as the increase of fixed costs of enterprises,and constructs the theoretical basis of the impact of housing price rise on social capital flow,labor flow and enterprise export decision-making.Thirdly,this paper will make a detailed analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of the current development of China's export trade and the rise of housing price on economic development.Finally,by using the method of empirical research,this paper collates and matches the 2008-2016 customs export data,wind database listed companies' financial data and CEIC prefecture level city data,and quantitatively analyzes the impact of the price rise in prefecture level cities on the export scale,export binary margin,export product quality and regional export industry upgrading,as well as under the influence of various heterogeneity characteristics The differential performance of the system.In terms of export scale,the rise of housing price significantly inhibited the increase of export scale of enterprises,and passed the robustness test.The PSM-DID model test of the impact of real estate tax policy shows that the real estate tax policy effectively inhibits the continuous rise of housing price,thus alleviating the inhibitory effect of housing price rise on the export scale of enterprises.The results of sub sample discussion show that the rise of housing price inhibits the export of general trade products and processing trade products at the same time,but the inhibitory effect of processing trade products is stronger;the rise of housing price inhibits the product export of state-owned enterprises and private enterprises,and the inhibition effect of state-owned enterprises is greater than that of foreign-funded enterprises;the rise of housing price has an impact on the export of processing trade products in eastern and central regions The results show that the growth of housing price has a significant inhibitory effect on the general trade and processing trade of first tier cities and processing trade of second tier cities,but has no significant impact on general trade of second tier cities and exports of third tier cities.The mechanism test shows that the rise of housing price affects the scale of enterprise's product export through influencing enterprise's investment and productivity,that is,the rise of housing price suppresses the investment of enterprise's main business and the growth of enterprise's productivity,thus inhibiting the increase of enterprise's export scale.In terms of the dual margin of exports,in general,the rise in housing prices has a significant inhibitory effect on the expansion margin of corporate product exports,while it has a significant promotion effect on the intensive margin of corporate product exports.After lagging the explanatory variables by one period,the conclusion is still robust.On this basis,this article analyzes and discusses the full sample in detail according to trade type,industry type,enterprise ownership type,region,city and product technology content.The results of the study show that rising house prices have a restraining effect on the expansion margin of exports of general trade and processing trade products,and have a promoting effect on the intensive margins of both,and the dual margin of exports of general trade products is more sensitive to rising house prices;The rise in housing prices has a significant inhibitory effect on the expansion margin of exports of manufacturing products,and has a significant role in promoting the intensive margin of exports of manufacturing products,but the expansion margin of exports of non-manufacturing products is not significant,and it has an insignificant effect on the expansion margin of non-manufacturing products.The intensive margin of export has a significant inhibitory effect;rising house prices have a significant inhibitory effect on the expansion margin of state-owned enterprises and private enterprises' product exports,and the intensive margin has a significant promotion effect,and rising house prices have a stronger dual marginal impact on private enterprises'product exports.,Has no significant impact on the dual margin of product exports of foreign-funded enterprises;rising house prices have significantly inhibited the expansion margin of exports of products in the eastern and western regions,and at the same time significantly promoted the intensive margin of product exports in the eastern and western regions,but it has an impact on the products in the central region.The expansion margin of exports shows a positive impact,and the marginal impact of intensive is negative and insignificant;rising housing prices have inhibited the expansion margins of product exports in first-tier,second-tier,and third-tier cities,and promoted all the margins of intensive,but The promotion of the intensive margin of product exports in the eastern region is the greatest,the expansion of product exports in second-tier cities has the largest marginal restraint effect,and the binary marginal influence of product exports in third-tier cities is the smallest;the increase in housing prices has the largest and the largest marginal restraint effect on the expansion of hightech products.Significantly,medium-tech products are the next,and low-tech products are the smallest and insignificant.The rise in housing prices has significantly promoted the intensive margin of high-,medium-,and low-tech products,and the intensive margin of high-tech products has the largest promotion effect,followed by mediumtech products.However,low-tech products are the smallest.The results of the intermediary effect test show that the rise in housing prices affects the dual margin of the firm through two paths:financing constraints and firm R?D investment.Specifically,rising housing prices mainly increased the financing constraints of private enterprises,promoted R?D investment by private enterprises,and ultimately suppressed the expansion margin of product exports,but promoted the intensive margin of exports.For state-owned enterprises,rising housing prices have reduced the financing constraints of enterprises,but have not promoted their R?D investment;for foreign-funded enterprises,rising housing prices have increased the financing constraints of enterprises and also reduced their R?D investment.In terms of quality upgrading of export products,on the whole,the rise of housing price significantly inhibited the improvement of export product quality,and passed the robustness test and endogenous test.The test of sub samples shows that the rise of housing price has a significant inhibitory effect on the export product quality of enterprises in western regions and third tier cities.At the same time,the rise of housing price is not conducive to the quality improvement of export products of private enterprises,and has a significant inhibitory effect on the quality improvement of medium and low technology products.The mediating effect test results show that the rise of housing price affects the quality of export products by reducing the independent innovation activities of enterprises and using the import of intermediate goods.In terms of upgrading the quality of export products,on the whole,the rise in housing prices has significantly inhibited the improvement of the quality of export products of enterprises,and passed the robustness test and the endogenous test.Subsample inspections show that rising housing prices have a particularly significant inhibitory effect on the quality of export products of enterprises in western regions and third-tier cities.At the same time,rising housing prices are not conducive to the improvement of the quality of private enterprises' export products,and it has a significant inhibitory effect on the improvement of the quality of medium and low-tech products.The test result of the intermediary effect shows that rising housing prices have affected the improvement of the quality of export products of enterprises by reducing the independent innovation activities of enterprises and the use of intermediate goods imports.Regarding the upgrading of regional export industries,rising housing prices have a significant impact on the export scale of high-tech products,and there is regional heterogeneity.At the same time,labor mobility has significantly affected the upgrading of regional export industries.Specifically,in the eastern region,rising housing prices have a significant negative impact on the export of high-tech products.The impact mechanism is that rising housing prices squeeze out labor,which is not conducive to the export of local high-tech products;in the central region,changes in housing prices have an impact on high-tech products.There is a time difference in exports.The difference in housing price increases in the east,central and western regions has led to the outflow of labor in the central region in the early stage,which is not conducive to the export of high-tech products and the upgrading of export industries in the central region.However,the wealth effect brought by rising housing prices in the central region has increased,and Affected by factors such as population outflow in the eastern region,the labor force in the central region began to manifest from an outflow to an inflow,thus promoting the export of high-tech products in the central region;the increase in housing prices in the western region has a positive impact on the export of high-tech products,which is obvious from the eastern and central regions.Because labor mobility in the western region is dominated by internal mobility,the impact of housing price changes on labor mobility is not significant,and it does not affect the export of hightech products by affecting labor mobility.In order to test the robustness of the conclusion and solve the endogenous problem of the model,this paper selects the lagging period of house price and the amount of real estate investment as instrumental variables,and conducts instrumental variable regression to further verify the robustness of the conclusion.Based on the above theoretical and empirical research,this paper further combined with the current international and domestic situation,from two aspects of government functions and enterprise countermeasures,put forward a series of policy recommendations to deal with the impact of housing price rise in the new situation.