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Empirical Research On The Spillover Effect Of US Monetary Policy To China’s Employment

Posted on:2016-07-14Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:D HuangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2359330479454834Subject:Finance
Abstract/Summary:
The problem of employment is always considered as a big livelihood thing and kept a closely watchful eye by Chinese government. Whether the employment is full and stable or not is directly related to the social harmonious situation. Hence, research on the problem of employment is very meaningful. Previously, most scholars basically focus on the analysis of domestic economy and put forward many beneficial suggestions as well. However, with the development of economic globalization, the connection among different countries becomes tighten. The transnational economic influence also cannot be neglected. Especially for the super country like America. As a result, building a proper model to deeply study the overflow effect of Chinese employment caused by America monetary policyis necessary.First of all, this paper introduces SVAR model, Secondly, the study uses American domestic macroscopical economic variables to construct standard model. Based on standard model, extra index like Chinese GDP and CPI are added to judge the expansibility of standard model. After guarantee the expansibility, empirical analysis is done on our employment to validate the overflow effect and direction of Chinese employment caused by American currency policy. Afterwards, the study digs into the middle conduction channel, refines it and finally reveals true and accurate conduction roadmap, influencing factor, impacting direction and spillover degree.At last, by studying the spillover effect of Chinese employment which origins from American monetary policy and empirical analysis, the paper finds that two factors play major conduction role. They are export factor in trade channels and interest rate in policy channels. Therefore, four policy proposals are recommended to Chinese government. Develop diversified export objects to decrease the dependent degree on American trade. Enlarge inner demand and make it as major factor to drive economic development. Pay attention to international coordination and strengthen information communication of policy adjustment between two countries. Increase regulating level of central bank and enhance the foresight and stability of monetary policy adjustment.
Keywords/Search Tags:Monetary Policy, Employment, SVAR Model, Spillover Effect, Transmission Channel
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