| Economic and social development practice in developed countries has proved that the size of the total amount of credit transactions directly affect economic growth.And the level of credit is an important indicator of the level of modern economic development.With the rapid economic development,China’s credit has become increasingly active and rapidly developed.Credit’s transactions and demands are expanding,when the means and manner of credit transactions are increasing.Since the 20 th century,the total size of credit from 11.61 trillion yuan in 2000 expanded to 135.85 trillion yuan in 2015,an increase of about 11.67 times.At the same time,by 2015,China’s gross domestic product(GDP)reached 68.55 trillion yuan,compared with 1.003 billion yuan in 2000,an increase of 6.42 times.China has made great achievements attracting worldwide attention.After the subprime mortgage crisis,the non-financial corporate sector credit scale has entered a stage with rapid expansion under the super-normal and emergent financial and monetary expansion policies adopted by government.Due to the large amount of credit,Chinese economy became to recover quickly earlier than Western countries.The credit has an obvious positive effect on economic growth.However,since 2012,the economic growth trend has been changed prominently with an obvious decline of economic growth.Every year’s incremental credit scale still maintains a higher growth;though the growth speed is slowing down.It is confusing that if credit expansion is not pulling obvious effect on the economy.In recent years,household consumption continued steady and rapid growth.And there are macro dates show that the household consumption seems to have become a driving force of economic growth in the first engine.In transition economies time,to promote the scale of resident credit could replace non-financial corporate credit on the effect of economic growth? With these questions,we hope to find answers in this paper with exploration and detailed research on the features of credit.Besides,the effect of credit on economic growth will be analyzed,and on this basis,the positive effect will be explored,which will have important realistic significance for the sound and healthy development of economy by giving play to the functions of credit under the background of “new normal” state.Based on review of related theories and empirical documents,the paper firstly define the concept of credit.Then the total amount of credit is divided into our departments as financial,government,non-financial businesses and residents sector.After that we make a detailed description of the total amount and the structure of credit’s characteristics.Further,there are the comparative analysis for the features about indirect financing and direct financing in non-financial sector.In addition,the effect of credit release on economic growth has been studied from the total amount by combining theoretical analysis with empirical inspection under different terms.Then explore the impact of the four sectors’ structure on economic growth as well as the effect of indirect and direct financing about the non-financial sector to economic growth.The time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model(TVP-VAR)is a VAR model which is a study of the structural relationship between multivariate and stochastic volatility.The parameters are time-varying,compared with the traditional VAR model parameters fixed,it can capture the smooth change of the economic system,more suitable for the continuous progress of the reform of Chinese,more suitable for macro time series.Therefore,this paper chooses TVP-VAR model as the research model,credit,investment and GDP growth rate as research variables,with the help of Oxmetrics to realize the estimation of the TVP-VAR model of China’s credit amount and structure on the economic growth effect of time varying,and the main conclusions are as follows:First,in the 2014 economic adjustment period,the expansion of the credit scale still has a significant role in promoting economic growth,the highest response level of 0.010,higher than the 2009 economic crisis period of 11.11%.Two,Credit expansion has a time-varying impact on China’s economic growth.Before 2004,the credit expansion of economic Lasheng basic fluctuations in the 0.0025;the influence degree from 2004 to 2013 the rapid growth in 2013 reached a peak of 0.0107 in 10 years,the extent of expansion of 3 times;in recent years continued to decline,the first quarter of 2016 fell to 0.0092,a credit expansion may not bring to enhance the role of imagination in the economic growth.Third,whether in the 2009 economic crisis,or in the 2014 economic restructuring period,the role of credit in the economic growth of the residents department is more significant than the non financial sector credit.Resident sector in 2014,2009,respectively,higher than the level of response to non-financial corporate sector 23.08%,22.22%.Appropriate transfer of corporate sector credit to the resident sector can better promote economic growth.Fourth,In the 2009 economic crisis,indirect financing credit expansion more strongly on economic growth,the highest degree of response is 47.37% higher than that of indirect financing and direct financing;in the period of economic structure adjustment,the direct financing of credit expansion in economic growth is more intense,the highest degree of response of direct financing is indirect financing 2 times.Promote the development of direct financing,which is conducive to the circulation of funds,optimize the allocation of resources,and promote sustainable economic development.According to the research in this paper,suggestions are proposed for expansions of credit as well as adjustments of credit structure.First,accelerate the construction of a social credit system in order to prevent credit risks.Second,the adjustment of credit structure should be promoted by giving play to the function of market in resources allocation.Third,optimize the financing structure by promoting the development of corporate bond market. |
