Crisis Early Warning Of The Real Economy And The Virtual Economy Based Interactive Equilibrium

The entire history of modern economic development seems to be a history of financial crisis. Into twenty-first Century, the degree of financial liberalization to deepen, The economy begins to develop towards a global mode,then economic crisis is more destructive.For China, the economic environment has more and more similar with the economic environment in which financial crisis have been broken, such as sustained high inflation. What’s more, the study also found that the country towarding to market economy has broken large financial crisis at least once.Maybe financial crisis is unavoidable. China is also faced with the reality of issues and challenges of the prevention of financial crises in his international and marketization road. Although our country has not been happened a serious financial crisis in the history, but the past did not happen does not mean that the crisis will not happen in the fu ture.Therefore, even The index of EWS has become the focus of many experts and scholars when discuss the Asian financial crisis. And then, more and more financial crisis early warning system came out. the warning result isn’t very good. And the famous KLR signal analysis acknowledged worldwide suffered criticism in the Subprime Mortgage Crisis.This article first carried on related literature of the economic crisis early warning. made the internal mechanism of the police source, warning signs, police intelligence, police limit clear. Then a new method of crisis warning is identified, which is a breakthrough of warning signs. Second, based on the research of the related literatures, from the perspective of" the branch of the virtual economy and the real economy "to study the economic crisis. In the 18-21 century, the economic crisis has been reanalyzed, initially identified the imbalance departments. In view of the existing classification of the national economy is not too refined to be operational, and combined with the outbreak of the economic crisis of the imbalance sector. the national economic sector is divided into five categories:real estate sector, industrial manufacturing sector, export trade, public goods sector and other sectors. Again, by referring to the KLR Signal Analysis Method of index selection idear, The index system of the interactive equilibrium between the real economy and the virtual economy is constructed, and In the theory the measure method of the interactive equilibrium and the model of the crisis early warning are defined.Then, By using principal component analysis, the comprehensive development level of each department is obtained. On the basis of the calculation of the coupling of the co scheduling, through the summary of the coupling degree of numerical statistics to identify the economic crisis early warning threshold. And combined with the United States sub loan crisis, the validity of the new method is verified.Last, applying this crisis warning model to China’s reality, the calculation and analysis of the coordination degree of the Department of 2005-2015 in our country, we come to the conclusion that the economic crisis will not happen in our country in the near future, but the coupling degree is low. So as to give a timely and specific policy recommendations.