A Study On The Warning Of Financial Crises: Based On The Deviation From The Real Economy And Virtual Economy

The outbreak of the subprime crisis in 2007 in the United States caused a huge impact on the world economy, and the crisis began from the financial sector to the real economy. This crisis led to many international scholars starting to analyze the source of risk, which has a view that the real economy to the deviation of virtual economy contributed to the crisis. Therefore, in light of the situation, this article analyzes deviation from the real economy and virtual economy in our country, and it will help to prevent the happening of the financial crisis and realize the steady development of the economy in our country.The deviation from the real economy and virtual economy mainly reflected in the trend of economic virtualization. Virtual economy proportion in the whole system structure occupied above 50%, more capital flow into virtual economy, speculation appears, the risk of moral hazard increases, for example, the booming of real estate industry, the gap with the real economy of scale is deepening, and there are more and more uncertainty factors on the economic operation. ALL the above led to the crisis. In recent years, virtual economy has developed rapidly in our country, and it promotes the real economy, but it is out away from the real economy, so this had to cause our vigilance. Therefore, on the basis of relevant theories in the second chapter, the third chapter studies the operation condition of the real economy and virtual economy in our country, and it is concluded that the virtual economy exists deviate from the real economy in our country.Based on the deviating from the real economy and virtual economy, we should strengthen the guard against the financial crisis, and this requires that we should establish the risk warning mechanism of our country as soon as possible. Due to KLR signal analysis can select more indicators, and it can integrate with practice, so we select the KLR method. In the article, it selects 14 indicators. In the selection of early warning indicators, this article selected multiple indicators from the real economy and virtual economy, and then carried on the empirical analysis to our country with signal analysis model. The results show that the development of economy in our country is in safe range, and it is notgoing to blast crisis in the next two years, but the empirical shows that there is also implying a crisis in 2007. Therefore, our country’s economy is not in a state of absolute security, under the background of the deepen relationships of the world economy and China’s financial reform, we must focus on crisis prevention and improve the risk assessment system, and construct a comprehensive risk warning mechanism.