| On 7th June,2012, the Central Bank of China made its formal announcement that it would lower lending and deposit rates of financial institutions from 8th June. Meanwhile, the central bank allowed deposit rates to float within 10%. Before, the central bank had loosened restrictions of deposit rates but it is the first time to carry out the way to allow the deposit rates to float up. Not until 2015 that the central bank completely let go of the floor restrictions of deposit rates. Since then, the commercial banks entered the era of independent pricing.From the aspect of deposit products offered by commercial banks, the essential factor is the interest rate, the continuously updating of interest rate means the innovation of deposit products. Every time the interest rate innovation being introduced, commercial banks, even the same one adopts it at different times which also causes interest rates innovation to diffuse in different paths. So what causes different at different points of commercial Banks to choose in any new rates? What causes different commercial banks to adopt new rates at different times? And what causes the same commercial bank to keep changing its adoption decision? Finally, what does the diffusion paths of rates innovation represent?Based on related theories of commercial innovation, financial innovation adoption and the diffusion mechanism, this paper investigates the adoption of rates innovation by using the survival function and bootstrap sampling method. This paper also explored the rates innovation diffusion paths as well as its characteristics by using the BASS model and External influence model. Based on the research of the four times interest rates innovation from 2012 to 2015, this paper gets the following conclusion:First, commercial banks has strong independent pricing ability. Along with the advancement of market-based reform of interest rates, the demonstration role of state-owned banks in interest rate innovation adoption gradually disappeared.Second, the loan scale and profitability affects commercial banks to adopt interest rate innovation. Loans promote bank to adopt innovation and profitability reduces the will to adopt innovation.Third, loan-to-deposit ratio can promote the adoption only when the adoption of innovation can improve the deposit rates. As adopting innovation means decreasing deposit rates, the loan-to-deposit ratio will not be affected.Fourth, risk level and asset quality does not affect the adoption in the commercial bank interest rate innovation.Fifth, affected by the factors of "individual", China’s interest rate innovation diffusion shows "index" rather than "S" type.The innovation of this paper is as followed:First, this paper recorded the adoption of commercial banks after each pranayama from June 8,2012, before when there is no such data. Therefore, the recorded data is without replication.Second, research on financial product innovation adoption usually takes customers as the subject while this paper takes the commercial bank as the main subject.Third, research on financial innovation adoption is mainly about ATM> mobile bankingN credit card etc.,there is little research on interest rate adoption and diffusion under the background of interest rate marketization, especially research on repeated interest rate. This paper enriches the field.Fourth, the Cox ratio risk model used in this paper used to be applied in medical researches and is seldom used in resolving financial problems. By using Cox as well as bootstrap model in the research of interest rate innovation adoption, the precision of this paper is improved.Fifth, this paper puts forward the "individual" factor in the study of diffusion of rate innovation, but not limited to the internal effect and external effect, which successfully explains the cause that the diffusion of interest rate innovation presents "index". |
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