Enterprises Overseas Investment Decision About Country Risk Based On Real Option

The "One Belt and One Road Initiative" is an important national strategy in China during the period of 13 th Five-Year. It provides a good opportunity to go out and to achieve a global capital expansion for our business. At present, the slow recovery of the global economy, strengthening inter regional economic cooperation has become an important driving force to promote the development of the global economy, and has become an irreversible trend. At the same time, China’s economy and the world’s increasingly close ties, China’s enterprises also with the rapid development of China’s economy and gradually move towards overseas. Enterprises in the "going out" process will inevitably face a variety of risks, such as political risk, economic risk and financial risk and so on, and can comprehensively reflect the risk is country risk, so country risk of overseas investment in the enterprise became important risk research of attention from all walks of life. Under this background, it is of great significance to study the decision-making behavior of overseas investment of enterprises based on the perspective of national risk.This thesis is on the background of "The One Belt and One Road" strategy, the introduction of the concept of country risk, using real option analysis method to explore the enterprise overseas investment decision-making behavior. The article is divided into seven parts: the first chapter is the introduction part, mainly introduces the research background, research significance, research ideas and framework, the article and Prospect of research; the second chapter introduces the "The Belt and Road" strategy and national risk concept, based on the related theories about real option and the overseas investment decision, and the research status at home and abroad related comments, and points out the research focus of this dissertation; the third chapter discusses the "national risk of overseas investment of enterprises The Belt and Road" strategy in the general situation;the fourth chapter uses the theory of real option, without considering the risk factors in the case of countries analysis of the value of the enterprise invested overseas investment decision-making in enterprises; the fifth chapter discusses on account of national risk,overseas investment decision-making behavior; in the sixth chapter Based on the analysis of the previous chapters, the introduction of specific national risk event "government default risk", to analyze the decision-making behavior of enterprises overseas investment;the seventh chapter summarizes the paper, and gives the relevant policyrecommendations.The innovation of this thesis is mainly reflected in following: first, the topic is relatively new. The pace of development of the times, "The Belt and Road" as the background, reflects the status of large-scale overseas investment enterprises in our country, with the distinct characteristics of the times. Secondly, the research method is advanced. The traditional net present value in the process of overseas investment companies face many risk factors, traditional net present value(NPV) has been unable to correctly assess the company’s value, in front of the country risk of uncertainty, the real option to provide guidance for enterprises overseas investment decision-making has become particularly important. Finally, the reality is strong. In order to make the whole article clear context, the country risk and the evaluation of survey of research and application of is discussed in this paper, based on detailed discusses the country risk of overseas investment decision-making and analysis of the follow-up study of expansion has laid a good foundation.