Pressure Test Analysis Of Small And Medium-Sized Bank Profitability Under The Background Of Deposit Interest Rate Marketization

To this year, the progress of marketization of interest rates, central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said, this year the probability of deposit interest rate floating ceiling completely free is very big.In the background of China's economic development into the new normal, continue to promote the reform of interest rate marketization should vigorously promotes the engines, and to effectively control risk.In this paper, the main content is description on interest rate marketization and our country small and medium-sized bank profits, then use sensitivity to pressure test method, from the perspective of quantitative, based on three typical small and medium-sized Banks, the deposit interest rate marketization of the impact on bank earnings, and the deposit interest rate marketization reform is divided into two parts, one is cancel the deposit interest rate cap, one is to cancel the current deposit interest rate upper limit and the quantitative analysis of marketization in stages may cause losses and to investigate the small and medium-sized Banks' non-interest income growth to ease of loss.After the results through the analysis of the stress tests, this paper get the following conclusion: in the short term, lift the ceiling on deposit may carry a certain impact on net profit of bank, but if you can take careful gradual reform steps, will deposit rate of average cost control within the acceptable range, so the loss of profit wouldn't hurt to our country small and medium-sized Banks' capital.Lift the ceiling on deposit interest rates may indeed will cause small and medium-sized bank interest income, but cannot isolate, stop the marketization of interest rate, and small and medium-sized Banks should optimize the structure of income, increase the intensity of the spreads on business development.So, as long as the proper way of reform, the bank well-prepared, deal with positive cases, the small and medium-sized bank deposit interest rate marketization will not cause loss of profit, also will cause profound influence to the development of financial industry in China.